Thursday, July 26, 2007

 

The Biggest Loser

As it turns out, that cricket scandal last year was only the tip of the iceberg. This is a rare confluence – a vortex of shame, perhaps – where everything is going horribly wrong in nearly every sport. But the real question is this: Who’s in the worst shape?

The candidates:

The NFL. Michael Vick, one of the five biggest names in the sport, has been indicted for dogfighting (federal indictments apparently have a 95 percent success rate), with charges including torturing and executing dogs. His team was going to suspend him but the NFL beat them to it, leaving Vick (when not in court) in limbo.

The NBA. A former ref (Tim Donaghy) is being indicted for fixing games to pay off a gambling debt. This is particularly troubling because NBA refs can easily call close fouls either way, meaning they can have a major effect on the game. Also troubling is that no one in the NBA noticed any irregularities during Donaghy’s games—meaning he was either really good at it or the NBA dropped the ball. NBA Commish David Stern called the incident the most troubling of his tenure.

Major League Baseball. Barry Bonds, almost universally reviled, is about to break the game’s most hallowed record, held by almost universally revered Hank Aaron. Making matters worse, a BALCO chemist is saying he knows Bonds used steroids (the rest of us figured it out by watching his head inflate like a kid’s balloon). Bonds has never failed a drug test but there is almost irrefutable evidence that he’s used performance enhancing drugs. Not helping matters: Bonds is complete and total jerk.

Professional Cycling. First, the 2006 Tour de France winner (Floyd Landis) fails a drug test. Then his agent tries to blackmail another former Tour de France winner (Greg LeMond). Then the early favorite in the 2007 race (Vinokourov) fails a drug test and his team drops out. Then two other dudes fail drug tests. Then the race leader, virtually assured of victory, is dropped by his team for lying about his whereabouts to the drug testers. Oh, and drug rumors continue to circulate around Lance Armstrong.

So take your pick. Who’s the big loser?

Monday, July 23, 2007

 

The Age of Parity is Upon Us

While Sergio and Padraig were choking their way down the stretch, they were passing more than just the Claret Jug back and forth. They held the Sportsmeat British Open pride pool championship in their hands as well. Both Snoop and Maxipriest scored 48 points with three players, leaving Snoop/Padraig and Maxipriest/Sergio to see who would collect 100 point and who would collect 70.

Snoop's man scared the hell out of him on 18 (twice, in fact) but held on to make Snoop the third winner in the Golf Pride Pool in three events this year -- and likely marking the first time anyone named Snoop has won anything in golf. Congrats, Snoop -- also congrats for winning without taking Tiger, a rare feat.

The Pride Pool now moves on to the PGA, to see if Budds (Masters), EJ (US Open) or Snoop (British Open) can lock up the golfing pride pool title. A fourth winner will force the overall winner to be decided by aggregate finish/points in the four events (which is complicated, so hopefully it won't come to that).

Here are the final British Open results:
Snoop - 148 points
Maxipriest - 118
Joe - 52
Budds - 48
YA Shoes - 48
EJ - 44
Big Thunder - 4

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

 

Are you trying to tell me Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?

In baseball, more so than any other sports, statistics are sacrosanct. But no sport employs a more flawed basis for comparison. Yes, artificial turf may favor some players while grass may favor others, but all football games are played on a field 100 yards long. And some rims may prove kinder, but all are 10 feet high.

But in baseball, stadiums vary widely. Taking into account park factor, a detailed accounting of how stadium shape and size affect runs, teams competing in Boston would score nearly 25 percent more runs than they would in Atlanta. Given, these are the absolute extremes, but it’s still a big difference.

Does this mean all numbers are null and void? Certainly not. But numbers are benchmarks, nothing more. Comparing Barry Bonds’ home runs to Hank Aaron’s home runs is more of a barometer. This is not an apples to apples (or, in Barry’s case, cream to cream or clear to clear) argument.

These numbers should also be taken into account when discussing the MVP and Cy Young. I was always a much bigger believer in ERA than in wins and losses. But I’m beginning to think I’ve favored ERA too much. Sure, Josh Beckett’s ERA is 3.35 and Dan Haren’s is 2.33, but Beckett plays in the No. 1 hitter’s park (1.262 park adjusted) while Haren plays in a pitcher’s paradise (0.920)—1.000 is average, favoring neither hitter nor pitcher—so perhaps Beckett’s 12-3 record is more indicative of how well he’s pitched than is his ERA.

The best application of this principle was last year’s MVP debate. Ryan Howard plays in an undisputed hitter’s park, while Albert Pujols plays in a pitcher’s park (St. Louis’s park adjusted rate of 0.861 is 28th of the 30 teams, ahead of only San Diego and Atlanta), so to compare their numbers as even figures is unfair. Assuming they are players of equal ability, Howard should outperform Pujols—not by a wide margin, but by enough to swing the MVP debate. And in this case, because of it the wrong guy was named MVP.

I do want to be careful not to overstate my case. Numbers are not irrelevant and all sports have their flaws—in basketball, for instance, points, assists and rebounds are all affected by tempo. Moreover, half the games are played on the road so the difference between two players is at least mitigated. But, along with home runs, RBI, wins and ERA, the ballpark is worth keeping in mind when discussing awards, All-Star ballots and the Hall of Fame. It is not a level playing field.

Monday, July 16, 2007

 

The Third Leg...

Of the Pride Point Grand Slam Golf Challenge: The British Open.

In the first two majors, two Sportsmeat posters took home the top prizes. Is the Thunderous One due to complete the trifecta? Can E.J. and Budds return to the top? Or will one of our loyal readers bring home the prize? The rules are the same: 1st place = 100 points; 2nd = 70; 3rd = 55; 4 = 45; 5 = 35; 6 = 30; 7 = 25; 8 = 20; 9 = 15; 10 = 10; 11-16 = 5; 17-25 = 1; 25-MC = nada. Put your five players in a comment before the first group tees off.

Friday, July 13, 2007

 

Random Baseball Thoughts

Over the last couple of days I've read or heard a few ridiculous baseball stats for Johan Santana that I thought were worth passing on:

-) He's 40-4 after the All-Star break since 2003
-) His .914 winning percentage after the break since 2004 is nearly 150 points better than the runner-up, Chris Carpenter
-) Since 2004, Santana's second-half batting average against is .186 (Roger Clemens is second at .216)
-) Since 2004, his second-half ERA is 1.78 (Clemens is against second, this time at 2.69)

Moving on, the Mets made perhaps the most curious move of the year by hiring Rickey Henderson as either their hitting coach or first-base coach (far more curious if it's as hitting coach). Rickey was an amazing player but communication never struck me as his forte. Still, I think it was a good move to shake up the Mets a little bit--the offense is clearly udnerperforming. By that same token, as much as I like Julio Franco, his bat speed is shot and he doesn't provide enough versatility to keep on the 25-man roster. Still, I wish there had been a better way to let him go.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

 

Excuse me?

I can't say I'm surprised. First, at an all-star game press conference, Barroid says that he'll be on hand when A-Rod eventually breaks his career home run record. Then, during his dugout interview last night, he talks about the fraternity of baseball players breaking down. Both attacks point squarely at Henry Aaron, a man who endured death threats in his pursuit of Babe Ruth's mark, a man who had an armed bodyguard with him at all times that season, a man who helped to integrate the South Atlantic League before he ever reached the majors, a man who carried himself with dignity and class as a player and who continues to do so. And why? Because Aaron has the cajones to call it as he sees it -- to turn his eyes away from a cheat and just ignore him, as so many fans are trying to. Bonds' words confirm what I've always thought: Steroids or no, he's a jerk.

Little League memories

Baseball writing, both fiction and non-, drips with nostalgia, and apparently that applies to Little League as well. In an NPR commentary that aired yesterday, Bill Harley talks about how, as an 11-year-old, he learned about the pain of coming close to perfection only to see it slip away in the form of a seeing-eye single. I loved playing Little League, and I don't doubt that these coming-of-age moments happen. But my lessons were a little different. I learned about that some dads are so desperate to win that they'll tell talented 9-year-olds to stay home from tryouts in hopes that less-informed managers will skip over them when they draft their teams. I learned, in a legendary postgame tirade from a coach I'll call Mr. A, that my 11- and 12-year-old teammates and I had "gone from contenders to pretenders to BUMS!" (Looking back, I think he probably had just seen On the Waterfront on cable and was channeling Brando.) I also learned (fortunately not first-hand) that watching airplanes while taking a lead off first will get you picked off; intentionally walking a batter with runners on second and third is a dicey proposition when your catcher is an awkward, uncoordinated teenager; and any Little League coach who wears baseball pants to games is not someone you'd want to invite to dinner at your house. These are useful things, I think. Not exactly ripped from the pages of a John Knowles book, but useful nonetheless.

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Monday, July 09, 2007

 

Mets Rant - July 9, 2007

So the Mets went bumbling into the All-Star break playing some of the worst baseball in the National League. Still, I have to consider the first half a success. Before the season, I said I’d be happy if they could just stay in contention in the first half and give Pedro, Guillermo Mota and Duaner Sanchez a chance to come back healthy and ready for a second-half run.

Not only have they done that, they’re in first place (thanks largely to the Braves and Phillies, both of whom underperformed in the first half). Things I didn’t factor in was the collapse of the Mets’ outfield—outfielders Nos. 2-6, Shawn Green, Moises Alou, Endy Chavez, Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez, have all gone on the DL, with Alou, Chavez and Milledge missing big stretches, plus there was the knee injury to Valentin. Now, Alou and Valentin are old and old players get hurt, but the rest are all young guys. It’s a tough break.

It has been balanced, however, by the general good health of the Mets’ best players—Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Delgado—though Delgado had a miserable first half and Beltran and Wright were only average.

There are two ways to look at this. This team is underperforming or they will play better in the second half. I’m going to take the latter view. Beltran, Wright and Delgado will all have better second halves than first halves, but the Mets do need to find some stability at second base (Valentin just doesn’t look right so perhaps more Ruben Gotay—wow, never thought I’d say that aloud) and perhaps trade for a right fielder to get them through the next month or two (can they get Jermaine Dye on the cheap?).

This team has a lot of question marks and the playoffs are far from a sure thing. But this team also has a lot of talent and Pedro will be a major addition—even if only as a No. 3 starter, he’ll still provide an emotional list. They’ll hold off the Braves and Phillies to win the NL East, joining the Brewers, Padres and Dodgers in the postseason.

Penultimate note: Despite the poor finish and the injuries, the Mets are only four games behind last year’s pace.

Last note: John Maine has a better or equal record and a lower ERA than the following All-Stars (originals and replacements): Cole Hamels, Phillies; Roy Oswalt, Astros; Brandon Webb, D-Backs; Ben Sheets, Brewers; John Smoltz, Braves.

Other picks:
AL playoff teams will be, not surprisingly, the Red Sox, Tigers, Indians and Angels.

World Series: Tigers over Mets.

Midseason Awards:
NL MVP: Prince Fielder, Brewers
Runner-up: Matt Holliday, Rockies
End-of-season MVP: Fielder

AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
Runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
End-of-season MVP: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees

NL Cy Young: Brad Penny, Dodgers
Runner-up: Jake Peavy, Padres
End-of-season Cy Young: Peavy

Al Cy Young: Dan Haren, A’s
Runner-up: Justin Verlander, Tigers
End-of-season Cy Young: Haren

Friday, July 06, 2007

 

Summer Doldrums

With the Sportsmeat crew apparently on summer break (myself being the worst offender), here's a nice little clip to break the doldrums. This is Darnell "Ding-a-ling" Wilson dropping Emmanuel Nwodo like a ton of bricks (literally). This knockout qualifies as an all-time great:

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