Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Are you trying to tell me Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
In baseball, more so than any other sports, statistics are sacrosanct. But no sport employs a more flawed basis for comparison. Yes, artificial turf may favor some players while grass may favor others, but all football games are played on a field 100 yards long. And some rims may prove kinder, but all are 10 feet high.
But in baseball, stadiums vary widely. Taking into account park factor, a detailed accounting of how stadium shape and size affect runs, teams competing in Boston would score nearly 25 percent more runs than they would in Atlanta. Given, these are the absolute extremes, but it’s still a big difference.
Does this mean all numbers are null and void? Certainly not. But numbers are benchmarks, nothing more. Comparing Barry Bonds’ home runs to Hank Aaron’s home runs is more of a barometer. This is not an apples to apples (or, in Barry’s case, cream to cream or clear to clear) argument.
These numbers should also be taken into account when discussing the MVP and Cy Young. I was always a much bigger believer in ERA than in wins and losses. But I’m beginning to think I’ve favored ERA too much. Sure, Josh Beckett’s ERA is 3.35 and Dan Haren’s is 2.33, but Beckett plays in the No. 1 hitter’s park (1.262 park adjusted) while Haren plays in a pitcher’s paradise (0.920)—1.000 is average, favoring neither hitter nor pitcher—so perhaps Beckett’s 12-3 record is more indicative of how well he’s pitched than is his ERA.
The best application of this principle was last year’s MVP debate. Ryan Howard plays in an undisputed hitter’s park, while Albert Pujols plays in a pitcher’s park (St. Louis’s park adjusted rate of 0.861 is 28th of the 30 teams, ahead of only San Diego and Atlanta), so to compare their numbers as even figures is unfair. Assuming they are players of equal ability, Howard should outperform Pujols—not by a wide margin, but by enough to swing the MVP debate. And in this case, because of it the wrong guy was named MVP.
I do want to be careful not to overstate my case. Numbers are not irrelevant and all sports have their flaws—in basketball, for instance, points, assists and rebounds are all affected by tempo. Moreover, half the games are played on the road so the difference between two players is at least mitigated. But, along with home runs, RBI, wins and ERA, the ballpark is worth keeping in mind when discussing awards, All-Star ballots and the Hall of Fame. It is not a level playing field.
But in baseball, stadiums vary widely. Taking into account park factor, a detailed accounting of how stadium shape and size affect runs, teams competing in Boston would score nearly 25 percent more runs than they would in Atlanta. Given, these are the absolute extremes, but it’s still a big difference.
Does this mean all numbers are null and void? Certainly not. But numbers are benchmarks, nothing more. Comparing Barry Bonds’ home runs to Hank Aaron’s home runs is more of a barometer. This is not an apples to apples (or, in Barry’s case, cream to cream or clear to clear) argument.
These numbers should also be taken into account when discussing the MVP and Cy Young. I was always a much bigger believer in ERA than in wins and losses. But I’m beginning to think I’ve favored ERA too much. Sure, Josh Beckett’s ERA is 3.35 and Dan Haren’s is 2.33, but Beckett plays in the No. 1 hitter’s park (1.262 park adjusted) while Haren plays in a pitcher’s paradise (0.920)—1.000 is average, favoring neither hitter nor pitcher—so perhaps Beckett’s 12-3 record is more indicative of how well he’s pitched than is his ERA.
The best application of this principle was last year’s MVP debate. Ryan Howard plays in an undisputed hitter’s park, while Albert Pujols plays in a pitcher’s park (St. Louis’s park adjusted rate of 0.861 is 28th of the 30 teams, ahead of only San Diego and Atlanta), so to compare their numbers as even figures is unfair. Assuming they are players of equal ability, Howard should outperform Pujols—not by a wide margin, but by enough to swing the MVP debate. And in this case, because of it the wrong guy was named MVP.
I do want to be careful not to overstate my case. Numbers are not irrelevant and all sports have their flaws—in basketball, for instance, points, assists and rebounds are all affected by tempo. Moreover, half the games are played on the road so the difference between two players is at least mitigated. But, along with home runs, RBI, wins and ERA, the ballpark is worth keeping in mind when discussing awards, All-Star ballots and the Hall of Fame. It is not a level playing field.
# posted by EJ @ 4:16 PM 
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All good points. One great illustration of this is the Padres' staff, which has a 2.85 ERA at home and a 3.46 on the road. Chris Young is a 0.82 at home, compared to 3.13 on the road; Wells is 2.77 H, 6.25 A; and Maddux 3.65 H, 4.74 A. Oddly enough, Peavy flips the tables with a 0.94 ERA on the road and a 3.16 at home.
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