Monday, July 09, 2007
Mets Rant - July 9, 2007
So the Mets went bumbling into the All-Star break playing some of the worst baseball in the National League. Still, I have to consider the first half a success. Before the season, I said I’d be happy if they could just stay in contention in the first half and give Pedro, Guillermo Mota and Duaner Sanchez a chance to come back healthy and ready for a second-half run.
Not only have they done that, they’re in first place (thanks largely to the Braves and Phillies, both of whom underperformed in the first half). Things I didn’t factor in was the collapse of the Mets’ outfield—outfielders Nos. 2-6, Shawn Green, Moises Alou, Endy Chavez, Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez, have all gone on the DL, with Alou, Chavez and Milledge missing big stretches, plus there was the knee injury to Valentin. Now, Alou and Valentin are old and old players get hurt, but the rest are all young guys. It’s a tough break.
It has been balanced, however, by the general good health of the Mets’ best players—Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Delgado—though Delgado had a miserable first half and Beltran and Wright were only average.
There are two ways to look at this. This team is underperforming or they will play better in the second half. I’m going to take the latter view. Beltran, Wright and Delgado will all have better second halves than first halves, but the Mets do need to find some stability at second base (Valentin just doesn’t look right so perhaps more Ruben Gotay—wow, never thought I’d say that aloud) and perhaps trade for a right fielder to get them through the next month or two (can they get Jermaine Dye on the cheap?).
This team has a lot of question marks and the playoffs are far from a sure thing. But this team also has a lot of talent and Pedro will be a major addition—even if only as a No. 3 starter, he’ll still provide an emotional list. They’ll hold off the Braves and Phillies to win the NL East, joining the Brewers, Padres and Dodgers in the postseason.
Penultimate note: Despite the poor finish and the injuries, the Mets are only four games behind last year’s pace.
Last note: John Maine has a better or equal record and a lower ERA than the following All-Stars (originals and replacements): Cole Hamels, Phillies; Roy Oswalt, Astros; Brandon Webb, D-Backs; Ben Sheets, Brewers; John Smoltz, Braves.
Other picks:
AL playoff teams will be, not surprisingly, the Red Sox, Tigers, Indians and Angels.
World Series: Tigers over Mets.
Midseason Awards:
NL MVP: Prince Fielder, Brewers
Runner-up: Matt Holliday, Rockies
End-of-season MVP: Fielder
AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
Runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
End-of-season MVP: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
NL Cy Young: Brad Penny, Dodgers
Runner-up: Jake Peavy, Padres
End-of-season Cy Young: Peavy
Al Cy Young: Dan Haren, A’s
Runner-up: Justin Verlander, Tigers
End-of-season Cy Young: Haren
Not only have they done that, they’re in first place (thanks largely to the Braves and Phillies, both of whom underperformed in the first half). Things I didn’t factor in was the collapse of the Mets’ outfield—outfielders Nos. 2-6, Shawn Green, Moises Alou, Endy Chavez, Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez, have all gone on the DL, with Alou, Chavez and Milledge missing big stretches, plus there was the knee injury to Valentin. Now, Alou and Valentin are old and old players get hurt, but the rest are all young guys. It’s a tough break.
It has been balanced, however, by the general good health of the Mets’ best players—Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Delgado—though Delgado had a miserable first half and Beltran and Wright were only average.
There are two ways to look at this. This team is underperforming or they will play better in the second half. I’m going to take the latter view. Beltran, Wright and Delgado will all have better second halves than first halves, but the Mets do need to find some stability at second base (Valentin just doesn’t look right so perhaps more Ruben Gotay—wow, never thought I’d say that aloud) and perhaps trade for a right fielder to get them through the next month or two (can they get Jermaine Dye on the cheap?).
This team has a lot of question marks and the playoffs are far from a sure thing. But this team also has a lot of talent and Pedro will be a major addition—even if only as a No. 3 starter, he’ll still provide an emotional list. They’ll hold off the Braves and Phillies to win the NL East, joining the Brewers, Padres and Dodgers in the postseason.
Penultimate note: Despite the poor finish and the injuries, the Mets are only four games behind last year’s pace.
Last note: John Maine has a better or equal record and a lower ERA than the following All-Stars (originals and replacements): Cole Hamels, Phillies; Roy Oswalt, Astros; Brandon Webb, D-Backs; Ben Sheets, Brewers; John Smoltz, Braves.
Other picks:
AL playoff teams will be, not surprisingly, the Red Sox, Tigers, Indians and Angels.
World Series: Tigers over Mets.
Midseason Awards:
NL MVP: Prince Fielder, Brewers
Runner-up: Matt Holliday, Rockies
End-of-season MVP: Fielder
AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
Runner-up: Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
End-of-season MVP: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
NL Cy Young: Brad Penny, Dodgers
Runner-up: Jake Peavy, Padres
End-of-season Cy Young: Peavy
Al Cy Young: Dan Haren, A’s
Runner-up: Justin Verlander, Tigers
End-of-season Cy Young: Haren
# posted by EJ @ 3:30 PM 
Comments:
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I agree with most of your comments except for the fact that I think the Braves will make a run at the Mets and/or wildcard (they're 2 back of each). If you think Delgado had a poor first half (.242, 14 hr, 49 rbis), what about Andrew Jones (.211, 15 hr, 54 rbis)? He's just too good to be below the Mendoza line. The Braves have had their share of important injuries (Larry, Wickman, Mike Gonzalez, Smoltz), so its impressive they're still in it. If they stay healthy and pick up an arm, watch out. I actually think the Mets are in more need of starting pitching than any other playoff team (unless Pedro is the Pedro of 1999), and were lucky to catch lightning in a bottle with Perez and Maine.
Also, watch out for Oakland. They always seem to be at the .500 level at the break and then go on a 20 of 25 streak to make the playoffs. Their pitching is incredible, although they've got quite a deficit to overcome with the Angels playing well. I'm not sure the Indians can keep up with the horses in the AL, so watch for the Oakland/Cleveland race for the wildcard to be a good one.
Also, watch out for Oakland. They always seem to be at the .500 level at the break and then go on a 20 of 25 streak to make the playoffs. Their pitching is incredible, although they've got quite a deficit to overcome with the Angels playing well. I'm not sure the Indians can keep up with the horses in the AL, so watch for the Oakland/Cleveland race for the wildcard to be a good one.
I went back and forth between the Braves and Dodgers for the NL wild card, but I just think the Braves' starters are too suspect behind Smoltz and Hudson, so I went with the Dodgers. But that's a good point with all their injuries -- if Chipper stays healthy, that makes them a much different team. And really, the NL is wide open at this point -- I'd say only the Reds, Nats and Giants are out of it -- while I'd be surprised if anyone can break the top 4 in the AL (though Seattle is even with the Indians in the loss column).
I'm really OK with the Mets' starting pitching. They need a front-of-the-rotation guy, but none of those are going to be available at the trade deadline, and I'm not really sure that even Buerhle would have been a significant upgrade on the current staff. What the Mets have is a staff of four No. 3 starters (maybe No. 2s for Maine and Glavine), so they'll have a shot every night if the offense can score some runs.
Last year the Mets were hitting .265 at the break, this year they're hitting .268. But last year they scored 473 runs to 394 this year, which is a huge drop off and is, as NYT's Murray Chass pointed out, the result of a lack of clutch hitting.
All that said, Carlos Zambrano would make a great Met in 2008.
I'm really OK with the Mets' starting pitching. They need a front-of-the-rotation guy, but none of those are going to be available at the trade deadline, and I'm not really sure that even Buerhle would have been a significant upgrade on the current staff. What the Mets have is a staff of four No. 3 starters (maybe No. 2s for Maine and Glavine), so they'll have a shot every night if the offense can score some runs.
Last year the Mets were hitting .265 at the break, this year they're hitting .268. But last year they scored 473 runs to 394 this year, which is a huge drop off and is, as NYT's Murray Chass pointed out, the result of a lack of clutch hitting.
All that said, Carlos Zambrano would make a great Met in 2008.
Bah - never speak of the Braves. You know things aren't going well when your two career (team) veterans are bickering with eachother. I'll take Francoeur though - he's just been increasing his value.
EJ decided to make me take my panic stricken emails online. The Mets need middle relief. Yeah when's the last time you saw that as a huge need for a team. The bats will come around (I feel) and they are playing a different kind of ball by using their speed on the bases to manufacture runs (they were and will again - they haven't done much right lately). You're right about have a starting rotation of #2 or #3 starters but that can be enough given the scoring that they're capable of. And they have a closer. That leaves middle relief to hold onto the game long enough for the closer to come in. Since we don't have an ace (barring Pedro but I can't even be sure that he won't play more like a P. Martinez than someone who can go by a one name moniker), you need pitchers that can come in for 2 or 3 SOLID innings - the Mets just don't have that right now.
I can't see who the Mets could pick up besides a 2B - who would you give up in the outfield once everyone is healthy? Millege because he keeps making rap singles? And who else?
Never count out the Braves. They'll make a push and send the Dodgers packing for the NL. Anyway, who's more likely to fold up the Jones' and a young stud (franc) or Nomar and D. Lowe?
Side Note: the Dodgers also have Eric Stults. A dyslexic announcer's worst nightmare. Worse than Rusty Kuntz.
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EJ decided to make me take my panic stricken emails online. The Mets need middle relief. Yeah when's the last time you saw that as a huge need for a team. The bats will come around (I feel) and they are playing a different kind of ball by using their speed on the bases to manufacture runs (they were and will again - they haven't done much right lately). You're right about have a starting rotation of #2 or #3 starters but that can be enough given the scoring that they're capable of. And they have a closer. That leaves middle relief to hold onto the game long enough for the closer to come in. Since we don't have an ace (barring Pedro but I can't even be sure that he won't play more like a P. Martinez than someone who can go by a one name moniker), you need pitchers that can come in for 2 or 3 SOLID innings - the Mets just don't have that right now.
I can't see who the Mets could pick up besides a 2B - who would you give up in the outfield once everyone is healthy? Millege because he keeps making rap singles? And who else?
Never count out the Braves. They'll make a push and send the Dodgers packing for the NL. Anyway, who's more likely to fold up the Jones' and a young stud (franc) or Nomar and D. Lowe?
Side Note: the Dodgers also have Eric Stults. A dyslexic announcer's worst nightmare. Worse than Rusty Kuntz.
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