Sportsmeat

Surely you didn't think that I wouldn't highlight my earlier post on the possibility of Warrior success versus the Mavs? My adopted team has shown well this series. True, they are coming off a tough loss last night, but I challenge anyone who watched that game to tell me that the Mavs were the better team.

Even in their losses, I felt that the Warriors played better for the majority of each game. In Dallas' Game 2 win, the Warriors were right there with the desperate Mavs, on the Mavs' home court, before they lost their cool (albeit the Warriors' self-destruction that game was somewhat justified - the officiating that game was atrocious. After the W's took a 60-58 lead early in the third, the Mavs shot the next 16 free throws of the game, helping give Dallas a 13 point lead by the end of the third (and causing Davis and Jackson to go insane)).

Last night's game was interesting in that it followed a classic NBA formula: Home team jumps out to a 15-20 point lead with the help of an amped-up crowd, visiting team chips away at the lead to bring it back even, home team makes a couple plays at the end to pull it out. The only strange thing is, when games like these happen, the home team is always the underdog. Always. Which made me realize something for the first time last night - the Warriors are better than the Mavericks. They simply are. If these teams would play 100 times, the Warriors would win 70. The Warriors are more athletic, while the Mavs are more skilled. But - not to get too alpha male on you - it all comes down to sack. The Warriors have it. The Mavs don't. All eight Warriors play fearlessly, attacking and not worrying about mistakes. The same can only be said for Josh Howard and Jason Terry on Dallas' side. Dallas' caution, indecision, and general lack of confidence has been their downfall.

For the majority of last night's game, from early in the second quarter until the final three minutes, the Warriors dominated, outscoring the Mavs 80-50. Then, the two teams virtually switched identities. Don Nelson took his foot off the gas pedal. With three minutes left and his team up 9, he pulled in the reins and clearly instructed the team to run down the clock. The Warriors ran 1-4 sets on offense the rest of the way (with the exception of one ugly post-up by Jason Richardson). Not coincidentally, the Warriors did not score again.

Now, you might think that this is the biased opinion of a sore loser. And you'd probably be right. Clearly, some credit must go to Dirk, who made three consecutive huge plays (two three pointers sandwiching a blocked layup - the only shot in the last three minutes that the Warriors took while going to the bucket). But even with Dirk's heroics, I don't think the Mavs would have had a chance at winning if the Warriors kept attacking.

The bottom line, though, is that the Warriors are still in good shape. They are heading to Oakland, where their home court advantage has been as big as any that I've ever seen in the NBA. They have to be feeling pretty confident after destroying Dallas for much of the game. And what's more? BT will be there on Thursday, making some noise for the home team.

Revised prediction: Warriors in 6.

Labels: BT Gloating, Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks, Playoff Basketball, Warriors

I love my Tivo. From the moment I met it and brought it home to live with me, I've been in love. It makes me laugh. It makes me sad. Its always there for me, even when I neglect it. But there is one thing about my Tivo that I don't like.

It makes me a worse sports fan.

(As an aside, the above one sentence paragraph is a total sportswriter thing to do, and it drives me crazy. Does anyone else hate those one sentence paragraphs? EJ, BBD, do they teach you that in J-School? Either way, I can't stand them.)

I didn't realize that Tivo would make me a worse sports fan. If anything, Tivo can be used to tape games that you won't be able to watch (which I do for some NFL and NCAA hoops games, the occasional boxing match on HBO, and events like th Olympics and World Cup). But Tivo eliminates the channel surfing which often led to sports viewing. I used to park on the couch flipping through the main channels, and I'd stop and watch a few minutes whenever I came across a decent NBA or MLB game. That doesn't happen anymore. Now, I have my Daily Show, Sopranos or Top Chef (don't ask) ready when I am. And there is always more to watch, so no reason to randomly surf to see what is on.

I say this because the NBA playoffs are starting, and I've probably watched a grand total of about one hour of nationally televised NBA games. I know less about the league this year than I have in each of the last 21 years or so. The lone exception to this is the Warriors. I've made a point to tune in to a couple of their games throughout the year.

Which all brings me to the point of the post. Don't sleep on Golden State. I know, this is becoming a somewhat popular sentiment (one that the Sports Guy has been recently pushing), but it is true. These aren't the '94 Nuggets. Their starting five each scored at least 16 per game (Jason Richardson is the low scorer of the starting five) and are all a threat for 25 on any night. Of their top three reserves, two have had 30-point efforts this season (Matt Barnes and Andres Biedrins) and the third has ten 20-point games.

Can they play defense, you ask? Well, no. They can't (see left). But more importantly, they don't want to. This is Nellie-ball baby, and energy spent on defense is wasted energy. Boxing out saps energy from your legs, energy that is needed to launch those critical threes (to which team are those three pointers critical? That's up for debate).

I kid (somewhat) about the defense. The fact is that the current incarnation of this team has been good. "Current incarnation" means post-Pacers robbery and healthy Richardson and Davis. After suffering through a miserable 6 game losing streak that dropped their record to 26-35(by an average margin of 15 points per game), Baron Davis returned from injury and the Dubs won 16 of their final 21. Among those beaten during this final quarter of the season were Detroit, Denver, Dallas, Phoenix, Houston and Utah (with an average margin of victory in those 6 games of 15 points - closest of the six was a 5 point win over the Suns). Not coincidentally, that 21-game stretch represents the only 21 games where the full Warrior lineup (with Jackson, Harrington, Davis and Richardson) has been in place.

Am I saying that the Warriors, when healthy, are a team that would win over 75% of their games? No. But they'd win well over 50%. At the rate their playing, I'd say that only the West's Big Three are better (and put the Warriors right there with the Rockets and Jazz). Plus, they have the only Patriot League alum in the NBA (magna cum laude, no less).

What's more, the Warriors have the Mavs' number. Sure, in Monday's game the Mavs sat Nowitzki, Dampier, Howard and Stackhouse, but the Warriors swept the three Dallas games that year, and have won 5 straight going back to last year. The Warriors (with Al Harrington at the 5 and Stephen Jackson at the 4) are playing a similar lineup to the one that the Mavs used successfully in last year's playoffs (when they used Nowitzki as a center for long stretches). And finally, there is just no pressure on the Warriors. They are the 8 seed. Happy to be here. Haven't been in 12 years (which is an utter disgrace in the NBA). The Mavs, meanwhile, have a ton of pressure. 6th best record ever. Expected MVP leading them. Playing against former coach. I'm not saying that the Warriors will win, but I would be shocked if they don't take 2 from the Mavs.

Final Thunder-prediction: Mavs in 7.

Labels: Adonal Foyle, Mavericks, NBA, Playoffs Basketball, Tivo, Warriors