Saturday, June 21, 2008
McCain/Schilling Ticket in November?
Life is good for Boston sports fans. Kevin Garnett proclaimed on Wednesday that he “knocked the bully’s ass out!,” Big Baby bared all at Thursday’s parade, JD Drew whipped the Philly Fanatics among a chorus of boos, Bill Belichik has a new girlfriend, and Big Grill named his second child after our jet-setting quarterback. Not surprisingly, Curt Shilling tried to steal some of the limelight by announcing that he’s having season ending shoulder surgery, likely ending his career.
I’ve never been a big fan of Big Curt’s promotional activity, but I’m of the belief this guy deserves to be a Hall of Famer.
A look at Schilling’s resume:
- In his 20 year career, Schilling had 216 wins and 146 losses (.597 winning percentage) in 436 career starts
- 3.46 career ERA vs. 4.41 ERA for the league (Note: I got this stat off of baseball-reference.com which ‘park-adjusts’ the league ERA. I don’t know the assumptions they made in this calculation)
- Eight 15 win seasons (only three 20 win seasons)
- 3116 strikeouts in 3261 innings – 14th most strikeouts of all time
- 3 seasons with 300+ strikeouts (only matched by Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, and Sandy Koufax)
- 6 time All-Star
- 711 walks in 3261 innings – led the league in K/BB ratio of for six straight years and second all time in this category
- Ranked in the top 10 in ERA and WHIP in 10 different seasons. Led the league in wins twice, in strikeouts three times, in fewest walks per nine innings twice, in complete games five times, and in innings pitched three times. Top five of Cy Young voting on 4 occasions.
Schilling arguably ranks among the top postseason pitchers of all time:
- 3 world series rings
- 11-2 in 19 career postseason starts
- 2.23 ERA in the postseason
On the downside, Schilling never won a Cy Young or MVP, didn’t win 250 games, and only won 20 games on 3 occasions. Many also knock his durability in that he made 30 starts in only 7 seasons (and he's a die hard Republican).
I heard a few people argue that his stats are similar to Orel Hersheiser and Jerry Koosman, two pitchers that failed to gain election by the BBWAA. Koosman only had a .515 win percentage. Orel’s only trump card is the fact he had a better ERA (3.48). Oh, and Big Schill pitched more frequently to Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire after their head’s exploded.
In the last ten years, Nolan Ryan is the only starting pitcher has been elected to the Hall of Fame (I consider Eckersley a closer). With the exception of wins, Schillings stats look comparable to Carlton, Seaver, Ryan and Palmer, names considered the gold standard of the past generation.
Carlton – .574 win percentage, 1.25 WHIP, 0.79 K/IP, ERA better than the league by 0.48 (see note above about the league ERA)
Seaver - .603 win percentage, 1.12 WHIP, 0.76 K/IP, ERA better than the league by 0.78
Ryan - .526 win percentage, 1.25 WHIP, 1.06 K/IP, ERA better than league by 0.37
Palmer – .638 win percentage, 1.18 WHIP, 0.56 K/IP, ERA better than league by 0.73
Schilling - .597 win percentage, 1.14 WHIP, 0.96 K/IP, ERA better than league by 0.95
My standard for the Hall of Fame has always been that a player must be among the top players at his position for 10 years. In my book, Schilling meets this standard. What do you think?
I’ve never been a big fan of Big Curt’s promotional activity, but I’m of the belief this guy deserves to be a Hall of Famer.
A look at Schilling’s resume:
- In his 20 year career, Schilling had 216 wins and 146 losses (.597 winning percentage) in 436 career starts
- 3.46 career ERA vs. 4.41 ERA for the league (Note: I got this stat off of baseball-reference.com which ‘park-adjusts’ the league ERA. I don’t know the assumptions they made in this calculation)
- Eight 15 win seasons (only three 20 win seasons)
- 3116 strikeouts in 3261 innings – 14th most strikeouts of all time
- 3 seasons with 300+ strikeouts (only matched by Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, and Sandy Koufax)
- 6 time All-Star
- 711 walks in 3261 innings – led the league in K/BB ratio of for six straight years and second all time in this category
- Ranked in the top 10 in ERA and WHIP in 10 different seasons. Led the league in wins twice, in strikeouts three times, in fewest walks per nine innings twice, in complete games five times, and in innings pitched three times. Top five of Cy Young voting on 4 occasions.
Schilling arguably ranks among the top postseason pitchers of all time:
- 3 world series rings
- 11-2 in 19 career postseason starts
- 2.23 ERA in the postseason
On the downside, Schilling never won a Cy Young or MVP, didn’t win 250 games, and only won 20 games on 3 occasions. Many also knock his durability in that he made 30 starts in only 7 seasons (and he's a die hard Republican).
I heard a few people argue that his stats are similar to Orel Hersheiser and Jerry Koosman, two pitchers that failed to gain election by the BBWAA. Koosman only had a .515 win percentage. Orel’s only trump card is the fact he had a better ERA (3.48). Oh, and Big Schill pitched more frequently to Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire after their head’s exploded.
In the last ten years, Nolan Ryan is the only starting pitcher has been elected to the Hall of Fame (I consider Eckersley a closer). With the exception of wins, Schillings stats look comparable to Carlton, Seaver, Ryan and Palmer, names considered the gold standard of the past generation.
Carlton – .574 win percentage, 1.25 WHIP, 0.79 K/IP, ERA better than the league by 0.48 (see note above about the league ERA)
Seaver - .603 win percentage, 1.12 WHIP, 0.76 K/IP, ERA better than the league by 0.78
Ryan - .526 win percentage, 1.25 WHIP, 1.06 K/IP, ERA better than league by 0.37
Palmer – .638 win percentage, 1.18 WHIP, 0.56 K/IP, ERA better than league by 0.73
Schilling - .597 win percentage, 1.14 WHIP, 0.96 K/IP, ERA better than league by 0.95
My standard for the Hall of Fame has always been that a player must be among the top players at his position for 10 years. In my book, Schilling meets this standard. What do you think?
# posted by Snoop @ 1:23 AM 
Comments:
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Howdy strangers.
Good post about a topic that I've been thinking about a bit. I think its a very close call. Unfortunately for Schilling, He was probably born 5 or 10 years too late. If he had retired in 98 or so, he'd probably be in by now.
Rather than being compared to Carlton, Seaver, Ryan and Palmer, he'll instead be compared to Clemens, Maddux, Martinez and Johnson. They will all be retired within the next 3 years, and will provide extraordinary competition.
So let's look at them.
Clemens - .658%, 1.17 WHIP, .95 K/IP, 1.34 ERA+ (not to mention an MVP and 7 CYs)
Maddux - 615%, 1.14 WHIP, .67 K/IP, 1.05 ERA+ (and 4 CYs)
Martinez - 692%, 1.04 WHIP, 1.13 K/IP, 1.66 ERA+ (3 CYs)
Johnson - 650%, 1.17 WHIP, 1.19 K/IP, 1.20 ERA+ (5 CYs)
Actually, though, I take it back. Schilling won't be compared against them. Those four are in. The real competition is against the next tier, namely Tom Glavine (who is also almost surely in), Mike Mussina, and John Smoltz.
Glavine - 602%, 1.31 WHIP, .59 K/IP, .63 ERA+ (but 2 CYs and 305 wins)
Mussina - 636%, 1.19 WHIP, .79 K/IP, .8 ERA+ (260 Wins and counting)
Smoltz - 588%, 1.17 WHIP, .89 K/IP, .87 ERA+ (1 CY and 3 seasons of 44+ saves)
Of course, you are right that Schilling's argument is postseason, postseason, postseason, yankees suck and bloody sock. And those five arguments are worth quite a bit.
In the end, the first 5 (including Glavine) are in. The voters will be reluctant to induct a glut of pitchers. I can't imagine all 8 get in, and 7 is a reach. But he could be #6...
Good post about a topic that I've been thinking about a bit. I think its a very close call. Unfortunately for Schilling, He was probably born 5 or 10 years too late. If he had retired in 98 or so, he'd probably be in by now.
Rather than being compared to Carlton, Seaver, Ryan and Palmer, he'll instead be compared to Clemens, Maddux, Martinez and Johnson. They will all be retired within the next 3 years, and will provide extraordinary competition.
So let's look at them.
Clemens - .658%, 1.17 WHIP, .95 K/IP, 1.34 ERA+ (not to mention an MVP and 7 CYs)
Maddux - 615%, 1.14 WHIP, .67 K/IP, 1.05 ERA+ (and 4 CYs)
Martinez - 692%, 1.04 WHIP, 1.13 K/IP, 1.66 ERA+ (3 CYs)
Johnson - 650%, 1.17 WHIP, 1.19 K/IP, 1.20 ERA+ (5 CYs)
Actually, though, I take it back. Schilling won't be compared against them. Those four are in. The real competition is against the next tier, namely Tom Glavine (who is also almost surely in), Mike Mussina, and John Smoltz.
Glavine - 602%, 1.31 WHIP, .59 K/IP, .63 ERA+ (but 2 CYs and 305 wins)
Mussina - 636%, 1.19 WHIP, .79 K/IP, .8 ERA+ (260 Wins and counting)
Smoltz - 588%, 1.17 WHIP, .89 K/IP, .87 ERA+ (1 CY and 3 seasons of 44+ saves)
Of course, you are right that Schilling's argument is postseason, postseason, postseason, yankees suck and bloody sock. And those five arguments are worth quite a bit.
In the end, the first 5 (including Glavine) are in. The voters will be reluctant to induct a glut of pitchers. I can't imagine all 8 get in, and 7 is a reach. But he could be #6...
Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back.
Love the analysis and the two-tier take on this thing. Of the eight, I think Mussina is definitely No. 8 and will be left out. Smoltz is the hardest to judge because of his relief years and the sentimental Smoltz-Glavine-Maddux link. Schilling is probably No. 7. Personally, I think he deserves some sort of thumb on the scale for all of the games that he left with a lead in Philly, only to see terrible relievers serve up home runs. I can still picture him in the dugout with a towel over his head, praying for a trade.
Love the analysis and the two-tier take on this thing. Of the eight, I think Mussina is definitely No. 8 and will be left out. Smoltz is the hardest to judge because of his relief years and the sentimental Smoltz-Glavine-Maddux link. Schilling is probably No. 7. Personally, I think he deserves some sort of thumb on the scale for all of the games that he left with a lead in Philly, only to see terrible relievers serve up home runs. I can still picture him in the dugout with a towel over his head, praying for a trade.
Wow. Nice work by Snoop and Thunder on the stats front. And a very compelling case by Snoop. Based on no numbers consideration, my gut is no on Schilling. He's one of those very good but not necessarily great players -- and there are a fair share of very good players in the Hall of Fame, so he has a chance.
As to the list above, I think Glavine is definitely in and Smoltz probably in -- combo of wins, saves and a postseason resume to match Schilling's. No go on Mussina.
As Thunder said, the glut of starters will hurt Schilling in the short term. His best bet may be down the road -- pitchers aren't lasting as long as they used to, and thus not winning as many games. That comedown in stats and expectations (we're lucky to see three 20-game winners in a season nowadays) could help Schilling, by comparison, down the road, when 200 wins becomes a much bigger benchmark.
As to the list above, I think Glavine is definitely in and Smoltz probably in -- combo of wins, saves and a postseason resume to match Schilling's. No go on Mussina.
As Thunder said, the glut of starters will hurt Schilling in the short term. His best bet may be down the road -- pitchers aren't lasting as long as they used to, and thus not winning as many games. That comedown in stats and expectations (we're lucky to see three 20-game winners in a season nowadays) could help Schilling, by comparison, down the road, when 200 wins becomes a much bigger benchmark.
Just to quantify one of the things I said before about Schilling pitching well on bad Philly teams – what one might call the Steve Carlton Factor (in honor of Lefty’s legendary 27 wins on a 59-win Phillies team in 1972) – Schilling was 9-10 despite a respectable 3.19 ERA in 1996; had 17 wins on a 68-win team in 1997; had 15 wins on a 75-win team in 1998; and had 15 wins on a 77-win team in 1999. But even with a better team in those prime years, he’s nowhere near 300, of course.
One note on Mussina. I agree that when you consider those 8 pitchers, he immediately seems like #8 out of 8. However, he's sitting on 260 wins at age 39. He's on track for 10 more by the end of this season. Say that happens. He'll be sitting on 270. He has never won less than 11 games in a season.
If he pitches to 42 or longer (like Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Clemens, Jamie Moyer and Kenny Rogers, among others) with a strong Yankees lineup behind him, its far from inconceivable that he's the last pitcher with over 300 wins.
No way he is out and Schilling is in if he ends up with 85+ more wins. Its a lot of ifs, but I'd put Mussina's shot at 300 at around 20%.
All that said, I've thought more about Schilling, and I think his postseason performance gets him in. He had an ERA of 1.70 or less in 8 of 12 postseason series, including 3 of 4 world series (all of which his team won). Just the best postseason pitcher of our time, perhaps of all time.
If he pitches to 42 or longer (like Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Clemens, Jamie Moyer and Kenny Rogers, among others) with a strong Yankees lineup behind him, its far from inconceivable that he's the last pitcher with over 300 wins.
No way he is out and Schilling is in if he ends up with 85+ more wins. Its a lot of ifs, but I'd put Mussina's shot at 300 at around 20%.
All that said, I've thought more about Schilling, and I think his postseason performance gets him in. He had an ERA of 1.70 or less in 8 of 12 postseason series, including 3 of 4 world series (all of which his team won). Just the best postseason pitcher of our time, perhaps of all time.
All great points. A couple of things stood out on the stats provided by Big Thunder: a) I was surprised at the quality of the statitics of the pitchers of the 90s/00s vs. the pitchers of the 70s/80s, despite the fact that the pitchers of the 90s/00s were performing in the alleged steroid era when run production was up so much. Does that say something about whether all of those pitchers (ex-Clemens) were clean? b) Pedro's stats are incredible (despite the fact that he was hammered by the Yankees tonight). I'll never forget seeing him pitch a 2 hitter at Fenway on Easter weekend 1998 vs. the Mariners (Griffey, A-Rod, Edgar Martinez). Probably the best pitching performance I've ever seen.
Which brings another question...does Edgar Martinez deserve to be in the Hall, despite arguably being the best DH of all time? It's near impossible to determine whether players like him will make it, given much of his competition was on the juice.
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Which brings another question...does Edgar Martinez deserve to be in the Hall, despite arguably being the best DH of all time? It's near impossible to determine whether players like him will make it, given much of his competition was on the juice.
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