Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Super Tuesday Review
Super Fat Tuesday came to a long, delayed close when my wife made me shut off the television at 1 a.m. ET last night (this morning, technically) and not a whole lot of closure out of the biggest primary day in American political history. The breakdown:
Republicans
John McCain was the clear winner yesterday and the presumptive nominee. I actually thought he had a strong but slightly disappointing day until MSNBC and CNN (the two stations I was flipping between) called California and Missouri for him within minutes of each other.
Mike Huckabee was the day’s other big winner. The likable nutjob from Bill Clinton’s hometown still has no chance of winning the nomination (Mississippi is about the only state he’ll win from here on out) but he certainly established his bona fides with core, southern conservatives and made himself a legit option for McCain’s V.P.
Mitt Romney was the day’s big loser. He got hosed in West Virginia to start the day (Romney was leading in a three-way race, but then, in the quirky two-way convention, McCain threw his people Huckabee’s way) and, while he won a number of states, was unable to break through where he needed to—Missouri, Georgia and California. All that said, I don’t think his candidacy is dead. There are still a number of states where he can compete against McCain, including Ohio, where his strength on the economy could play well.
Democrats
The night was essentially a wash. I think I would say Hillary won the night because she’ll come out of it with more delegates, won the two biggest prizes (New York and California) and posted impressive wins in California and Massachusetts (despite endorsements of Obama from both Massachusetts senators, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, as well as Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick).
However, Obama won 13 states to eight for Clinton (and has a very slight lead in undecided New Mexico). And while Clinton may have won the big prizes, her victories were relatively narrow; Obama, conversely, took a number of traditionally red states by whopping margins. Moreover, Obama took the bellwether state of Missouri in an upset and managed to break Clinton’s presumed hold over the tri-state area by taking Connecticut.
The other good news for Obama is that the next week sets up in his favor (Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine) and he has a good chance to sweep the Chesapeake primaries (Maryland, Virginia, D.C.) six days from now. Even if he doesn’t, Obama will likely head into the swing state of Wisconsin Feb. 19 in a dead heat with Clinton, setting up a major showdown a month from now with same-day primaries in Texas and Ohio.
Republicans
John McCain was the clear winner yesterday and the presumptive nominee. I actually thought he had a strong but slightly disappointing day until MSNBC and CNN (the two stations I was flipping between) called California and Missouri for him within minutes of each other.
Mike Huckabee was the day’s other big winner. The likable nutjob from Bill Clinton’s hometown still has no chance of winning the nomination (Mississippi is about the only state he’ll win from here on out) but he certainly established his bona fides with core, southern conservatives and made himself a legit option for McCain’s V.P.
Mitt Romney was the day’s big loser. He got hosed in West Virginia to start the day (Romney was leading in a three-way race, but then, in the quirky two-way convention, McCain threw his people Huckabee’s way) and, while he won a number of states, was unable to break through where he needed to—Missouri, Georgia and California. All that said, I don’t think his candidacy is dead. There are still a number of states where he can compete against McCain, including Ohio, where his strength on the economy could play well.
Democrats
The night was essentially a wash. I think I would say Hillary won the night because she’ll come out of it with more delegates, won the two biggest prizes (New York and California) and posted impressive wins in California and Massachusetts (despite endorsements of Obama from both Massachusetts senators, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, as well as Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick).
However, Obama won 13 states to eight for Clinton (and has a very slight lead in undecided New Mexico). And while Clinton may have won the big prizes, her victories were relatively narrow; Obama, conversely, took a number of traditionally red states by whopping margins. Moreover, Obama took the bellwether state of Missouri in an upset and managed to break Clinton’s presumed hold over the tri-state area by taking Connecticut.
The other good news for Obama is that the next week sets up in his favor (Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine) and he has a good chance to sweep the Chesapeake primaries (Maryland, Virginia, D.C.) six days from now. Even if he doesn’t, Obama will likely head into the swing state of Wisconsin Feb. 19 in a dead heat with Clinton, setting up a major showdown a month from now with same-day primaries in Texas and Ohio.
# posted by EJ @ 9:53 AM 
