Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Glass Half Full, Glass Half Empty
A week ago the Mets’ biggest problem appeared to be choosing which four of their five deserving starters would make the postseason rotation. That is no longer an issue—El Duque is out indefinitely and John Maine and Oliver Perez appear to have hit a wall. All of a sudden, their best starter is a guy on the verge of retirement and their second-best starter has made a scant three starts in the last year. And the biggest problem of all? There may be no postseason to prepare for.
No team in Major League Baseball history has ever blown a seven-game lead held on or after Sept. 12. But the Mets have orchestrated this same dance all season. They were the worst team in baseball for the month of June, then built a seven-game lead on Aug. 25, which was whittled down to two games one week later. They built it back up to seven games by the 12th, and now the lead is down to 1-1/2 games.
What happened? Basically, the middle relief has been a problem all year, relying on a strong starting staff to pick up wins. But now the starters have faltered. Duque is old, and as I’ve said here many times this season, old players get hurt (Tom Glavine excepted; Moises Alou not). Perez is pitching his first full big-league season in three years and Maine (whose ERA, 2.74 at the All-Star break, climbed over 4.00 with last night’s dismal performance) is pitching his first-ever. Oh, and the team’s sparkplug, Jose Reyes, is batting .210 over the last five weeks. The Mets have a lot of young players still learning how to get it done and a lot of old players winding down, with only Carlos Beltran and the declining Shawn Green in between. Oh, and we’ve learned that steroids really do help pitchers.
What next? Amazingly, the Mets have the biggest lead in the National League and are tied with the D-Backs and Padres for the league’s best record. So it’s still their division to lose and they’ve responded every time they’ve been challenged this year. Teams with big leads do tend to relax (see this year’s Red Sox, who are only one game away from having to start the postseason on the road). Plus, their schedule is favorable. I think they’ll hold on, but I say that with decreasing levels of confidence.
No team in Major League Baseball history has ever blown a seven-game lead held on or after Sept. 12. But the Mets have orchestrated this same dance all season. They were the worst team in baseball for the month of June, then built a seven-game lead on Aug. 25, which was whittled down to two games one week later. They built it back up to seven games by the 12th, and now the lead is down to 1-1/2 games.
What happened? Basically, the middle relief has been a problem all year, relying on a strong starting staff to pick up wins. But now the starters have faltered. Duque is old, and as I’ve said here many times this season, old players get hurt (Tom Glavine excepted; Moises Alou not). Perez is pitching his first full big-league season in three years and Maine (whose ERA, 2.74 at the All-Star break, climbed over 4.00 with last night’s dismal performance) is pitching his first-ever. Oh, and the team’s sparkplug, Jose Reyes, is batting .210 over the last five weeks. The Mets have a lot of young players still learning how to get it done and a lot of old players winding down, with only Carlos Beltran and the declining Shawn Green in between. Oh, and we’ve learned that steroids really do help pitchers.
What next? Amazingly, the Mets have the biggest lead in the National League and are tied with the D-Backs and Padres for the league’s best record. So it’s still their division to lose and they’ve responded every time they’ve been challenged this year. Teams with big leads do tend to relax (see this year’s Red Sox, who are only one game away from having to start the postseason on the road). Plus, their schedule is favorable. I think they’ll hold on, but I say that with decreasing levels of confidence.
# posted by EJ @ 10:14 AM 
