Thursday, August 02, 2007
Luis Castillo Will Not Save You
All season long I’ve tried to stay positive—I picked the Mets to win the World Series before the year and relented slightly after the All-Star break, picking them to win he NL but lose to the Tigers. Now, for the first time all year, I’m doubting the postseason altogether.
There gets to be a certain time in the year where your team is not going to make a magical run, and a struggling player is not going to turn it around. This is that time of year. Carlos Delgado is having a bad year—not awful by objective standards, but poor by his own. This is not going to change. Carlos Beltran, since the opening month of the season, has been similarly poor. Mets fans can only hope he will turn it around once he’s healthy, but chances are he’s going to be streaky—not sublime—the rest of the way.
The big flaw with the Mets, however, remains the bullpen. Aaron Heilman is clearly the set-up guy at this point, but he’s not a lock. Scott Schoenweis, the purported seventh inning guy, stinks. The two early season wonders have stumbled—Pedro Feliciano is having a bad stretch and Joe Smith fell all the way to the minors. And Guillermo Mota is looking more and more like the roids were the reason for last year’s success. Jorge Sosa is not going to save them.
I don’t blame Omar Minaya for not making any major trades at the deadline—to me, Humber and another prospect (not the three outfielders of Gomez, Milledge and Martinez, or Mike Pelfrey) seemed like a fair deal for Chad Cordero, but no go. So be it. It’s the right move, but it will cost the Mets this year.
On the upside, the Mets are still in first despite a slew of injuries, particularly to the outfield, and Billy Wagner has been automatic. They can still hold off the Braves, but they are no longer a better team than the Braves (Renteria, Jones, Teixiera, Jones, McCann and Francouer is the best lineup in the NL). One puzzling move was the Braves picking up Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies. It seems to me the Mets could have topped that offer for Dotel (who would have been the third-best reliever for the Mets after Wagner and Heilman).
Outside the Braves’ pickups, the other big deadline deal was genius for the Red Sox. I know a lot of Sox fans had high hopes for Kason Gabbard, but I think Boston feels good about their starting pitching (plus they kept Jon Lester, who is both a good pitcher and a good story, and don’t think teams don’t way PR when making trades). Eric Gagne will be a lock for the eighth, as will Okajima for the seventh (and obviously Papelbon for the ninth), meaning that, in the postseason, the Red Sox are only looking for six innings out of Schilling, Dice-K, Beckett and Wakefield/Lester. Plus, the Red Sox now have flexibility heading into 2008. If Schilling leaves they can slide Papelbon into a killer rotation and still have a great closer to rely on. Coupled with the absence of moves from Detroit and LA/Anaheim, I think the Sox are now the AL favorite.
I’m not so sure I can say the same about the Mets in the NL. Not anymore.
There gets to be a certain time in the year where your team is not going to make a magical run, and a struggling player is not going to turn it around. This is that time of year. Carlos Delgado is having a bad year—not awful by objective standards, but poor by his own. This is not going to change. Carlos Beltran, since the opening month of the season, has been similarly poor. Mets fans can only hope he will turn it around once he’s healthy, but chances are he’s going to be streaky—not sublime—the rest of the way.
The big flaw with the Mets, however, remains the bullpen. Aaron Heilman is clearly the set-up guy at this point, but he’s not a lock. Scott Schoenweis, the purported seventh inning guy, stinks. The two early season wonders have stumbled—Pedro Feliciano is having a bad stretch and Joe Smith fell all the way to the minors. And Guillermo Mota is looking more and more like the roids were the reason for last year’s success. Jorge Sosa is not going to save them.
I don’t blame Omar Minaya for not making any major trades at the deadline—to me, Humber and another prospect (not the three outfielders of Gomez, Milledge and Martinez, or Mike Pelfrey) seemed like a fair deal for Chad Cordero, but no go. So be it. It’s the right move, but it will cost the Mets this year.
On the upside, the Mets are still in first despite a slew of injuries, particularly to the outfield, and Billy Wagner has been automatic. They can still hold off the Braves, but they are no longer a better team than the Braves (Renteria, Jones, Teixiera, Jones, McCann and Francouer is the best lineup in the NL). One puzzling move was the Braves picking up Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies. It seems to me the Mets could have topped that offer for Dotel (who would have been the third-best reliever for the Mets after Wagner and Heilman).
Outside the Braves’ pickups, the other big deadline deal was genius for the Red Sox. I know a lot of Sox fans had high hopes for Kason Gabbard, but I think Boston feels good about their starting pitching (plus they kept Jon Lester, who is both a good pitcher and a good story, and don’t think teams don’t way PR when making trades). Eric Gagne will be a lock for the eighth, as will Okajima for the seventh (and obviously Papelbon for the ninth), meaning that, in the postseason, the Red Sox are only looking for six innings out of Schilling, Dice-K, Beckett and Wakefield/Lester. Plus, the Red Sox now have flexibility heading into 2008. If Schilling leaves they can slide Papelbon into a killer rotation and still have a great closer to rely on. Coupled with the absence of moves from Detroit and LA/Anaheim, I think the Sox are now the AL favorite.
I’m not so sure I can say the same about the Mets in the NL. Not anymore.
# posted by EJ @ 2:24 PM 
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I agree with your comments about the mets. They're putting a lot of stock in Pedro Martinez' return. I predict Pedro goes down again in September b/c he'll stretch himself too much due to the bullpen woes.
Gabbard wasn't even one of the top ten prospects in the sox' system prior to his emergence in the last two months, so I agree that you have to like the deal. Don't look for Papelbon to be moved to the rotation next year, though. Schilling will be gone, but his place will be taken by Clay Buchholz, who was just promoted to AAA after going 7-2 w/ 1.77 era (batters hit .177) in AA and is drawing a lot of comparisons to Chris Carpenter (hopefully ex injuries).
By the way, did anyone see Schilling on Jeopardy earlier this week. His Final Jeopardy answer was almost as good as "someone who has never been in my kitchen."
Gabbard wasn't even one of the top ten prospects in the sox' system prior to his emergence in the last two months, so I agree that you have to like the deal. Don't look for Papelbon to be moved to the rotation next year, though. Schilling will be gone, but his place will be taken by Clay Buchholz, who was just promoted to AAA after going 7-2 w/ 1.77 era (batters hit .177) in AA and is drawing a lot of comparisons to Chris Carpenter (hopefully ex injuries).
By the way, did anyone see Schilling on Jeopardy earlier this week. His Final Jeopardy answer was almost as good as "someone who has never been in my kitchen."
I'm always disappointed by the trade deadline, and I think it's because the sellers are getting more shrewd. For whatever reason, it doesn't seem like there are as many trades as there once were. Wonder if someone has stats on this.
Incidentally, Schilling's actual answer and question:
Her great-great-grandmother Louisa Lane Drew once appeared in a play with the father of John Wilkes Booth.
Curt: "Who is Nancy Drew?"
Actual answer: Drew Barrymore. Don't think that I would have come up with that, but I wouldn't have gone with a fictional character in the category Celebrity Relatives. If the show were taped today, he could go with J.D. Drew and get the added bonus of indirectly referring to a teammate as a "she."
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=1364
Incidentally, Schilling's actual answer and question:
Her great-great-grandmother Louisa Lane Drew once appeared in a play with the father of John Wilkes Booth.
Curt: "Who is Nancy Drew?"
Actual answer: Drew Barrymore. Don't think that I would have come up with that, but I wouldn't have gone with a fictional character in the category Celebrity Relatives. If the show were taped today, he could go with J.D. Drew and get the added bonus of indirectly referring to a teammate as a "she."
http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=1364
It wouldn't be the first time a) a Boston-based player has been called "she" or b) the first time JD Drew has been called "she"
As to the trades, the way I keep hearing it explained is that, with revenue sharing, teams just aren't as broke as they used to be and thus aren't as eager to simply dump salary for prospects. Previously, teams like the Yanks, Sox, Mets, Dodgers, etc. wouldn't need to come up with equal value for a player -- they would just need to be willing to take on salaray. Since that's no longer as big a consideration, the team trading now wants equal value, which the acquiring team doesn't want to provide.
Also, it seems like the recent World Series winnders have had a lot of young players, so I think teams are more apt to give their young guys a try (the current Yankees are the perfect example of this).
All of this is why you have to give Schuerholz (whose name I doubt I spelled correctly) for pulling the trigger on the Teixiera deal. Great trade for a young hitter who also happens to fill their biggest need.
As to the trades, the way I keep hearing it explained is that, with revenue sharing, teams just aren't as broke as they used to be and thus aren't as eager to simply dump salary for prospects. Previously, teams like the Yanks, Sox, Mets, Dodgers, etc. wouldn't need to come up with equal value for a player -- they would just need to be willing to take on salaray. Since that's no longer as big a consideration, the team trading now wants equal value, which the acquiring team doesn't want to provide.
Also, it seems like the recent World Series winnders have had a lot of young players, so I think teams are more apt to give their young guys a try (the current Yankees are the perfect example of this).
All of this is why you have to give Schuerholz (whose name I doubt I spelled correctly) for pulling the trigger on the Teixiera deal. Great trade for a young hitter who also happens to fill their biggest need.
Just wanted to make sure everyone reflected on my comments about Clay Buchholz after last night's no-hitter. It's a given that Schilling's not coming back.
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