Thursday, June 07, 2007
And the winner is ...
Going through the matchups, it’s hard to see how the Cavaliers can beat the Spurs in a seven-game series. The only discernible advantage is at small forward, with LeBron over Bruce Bowen, and that is mitigated by the fact that Tim Duncan stands head and shoulders above Drew Gooden at power forward (if only Carlos Boozer was still on the Cavs). SI even rated Fabricio Oberto as the better center over Zydraunas Ilgauskas. I’m not sure if I completely buy that, but it doesn’t bode well for Cleveland.
The Cavs’ lone hope is that LeBron can pour in at least two transcendent performances to single-handedly win games, and that they can scrape up another two wins somewhere. The funny thing? It could happen. I don’t think it will, but it’s not far-fetched.
Not that it means too much in the playoffs, but the Cavs did go 2-0 against the Spurs this year and match up well defensively. Also, as Jeff Van Gundy has pointed out, Bowen’s one defensive weakness is in the low post, and LeBron is physical enough to dominate there (or, well, pretty much anywhere). Also, Bowen, while an excellent 3-point shooter, doesn’t have much of an offensive game and thus won’t wear out James on defense (a bit of a weakness for the preposterously mature 22-year-old).
Duncan, meanwhile, is a different kind of great player. Unlike James, he rarely takes over games—a product of his style of play, his personality and his position (as a power forward/center, he is not guaranteed to touch the ball each time down the court). Duncan excels by doing everything very, very well. He is equally capable with his back to the basket or in the mid-range game (which is what makes him more of a 4 than a 5), is one of the best and most underrated defenders in the league and passes well out of double teams. He’s a complete player in a way that few are (exceptions being Kevin Garnett and perhaps Kobe, though one could argue he’s only a great passer when he wants to be, and he rarely wants to be).
As to how the series will play out, I’ll go with the Spurs in 6. Tony Parker will kill Daniel “Boobie” Gibson and is really too quick for Larry Hughes (though Hughes could be a good matchup on Ginobli, while Sasha Pavlovic would not be). Also, the Spurs have more depth and can play at different paces, a subtly and variety of style the Cavs lack. Look for the combo of Parker and Duncan to be more than LeBron can muster, though I think James will be the best player in this series. Just not the MVP.
The Cavs’ lone hope is that LeBron can pour in at least two transcendent performances to single-handedly win games, and that they can scrape up another two wins somewhere. The funny thing? It could happen. I don’t think it will, but it’s not far-fetched.
Not that it means too much in the playoffs, but the Cavs did go 2-0 against the Spurs this year and match up well defensively. Also, as Jeff Van Gundy has pointed out, Bowen’s one defensive weakness is in the low post, and LeBron is physical enough to dominate there (or, well, pretty much anywhere). Also, Bowen, while an excellent 3-point shooter, doesn’t have much of an offensive game and thus won’t wear out James on defense (a bit of a weakness for the preposterously mature 22-year-old).
Duncan, meanwhile, is a different kind of great player. Unlike James, he rarely takes over games—a product of his style of play, his personality and his position (as a power forward/center, he is not guaranteed to touch the ball each time down the court). Duncan excels by doing everything very, very well. He is equally capable with his back to the basket or in the mid-range game (which is what makes him more of a 4 than a 5), is one of the best and most underrated defenders in the league and passes well out of double teams. He’s a complete player in a way that few are (exceptions being Kevin Garnett and perhaps Kobe, though one could argue he’s only a great passer when he wants to be, and he rarely wants to be).
As to how the series will play out, I’ll go with the Spurs in 6. Tony Parker will kill Daniel “Boobie” Gibson and is really too quick for Larry Hughes (though Hughes could be a good matchup on Ginobli, while Sasha Pavlovic would not be). Also, the Spurs have more depth and can play at different paces, a subtly and variety of style the Cavs lack. Look for the combo of Parker and Duncan to be more than LeBron can muster, though I think James will be the best player in this series. Just not the MVP.
P.S. -- check out this ping pong ball thing. Thanks God we never had to face this guy in an SAE basement.
# posted by EJ @ 3:52 PM 
