Friday, April 27, 2007

 

It's all well and good until the Jets pick the No. 4 punter in the CFL

The draft is one of the most overrated events in all of sports, and I love it anyway. It’s the only event on the NFL calendar that actually provides hope to all teams, and it provides plenty of room for second-guessing, predicting and ripping team management, all of which are fun pursuits for bloggers.

Before we go further, here are a few fun draft notes (courtesy ESPN.com research) as the Raiders choose between JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn:

Since 2000, nine QBs have been drafted in the first round. Only two (Carson Palmer, Michael Vick) have made the Pro Bowl.
Since 1990, 29 QBs have been picked in the first round. Nine have made the Pro Bowl.
Notable busts include Ryan Leaf, Andre Ware, Todd Marinovich, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler (I’m sorry, make that Rep. Heath Shuler).
Obscure busts include Dan McGwire, Cade McNown, Jim Druckenmiller.

Other first-round busts (1990 and after) to consider:

Running back: The Penn State trio of Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter and Curtis Enis (all picked in the Top 5); Lawrence Phillips, Nebraska.
Wide Receiver: The Colorado duo of Michael Westbrook and Rae Carruth, Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers (who, will sucking, at least never conspired to kill anyone).
O-Line: Tony Mandarich, the Tennessee duo of Charles McCrae and Antone Davis (both Top 10 picks), Robert Gallery.
D-Line: The Alabama trio of Keith McCants, John Copeland and Eric Curry (all Top 6), Mike Mamula, Steve Emtman, Gerard Warren.
LB: Trev Alberts, Andy Katzenmoyer.
DB: Bruce Pickens, Bryant Westbrook.

Moving on, there will be plenty of discussion and about 873 mock drafts, so (because I dig the whole brevity thing) I’ll only focus on the Top 5 because, really, that’s where all the hype is.

1. Oakland Raiders – JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
There are a lot of recent rumors that the Raiders are considering Ga. Tech wideout Calvin Johnson, who is clearly the class of this draft. But that move doesn’t make sense. With Art Shell gone, Jerry Porter should be out of the doghouse and return to form, and the Raiders still have a lot of money invested in Randy Moss. Given, Moss doesn’t do much more than go deep and out-jump corners at this point, but that’s a perfect fit with ultra-talented Russell, who can throw the ball f#^$ing 80 yards. As for Russell, I’m not totally sold on him. He took a while to develop in college and I would have liked to see him repeat his junior season (that is, repeat the performance of his junior year, not actually re-take his third year of college). Still, he and Johnson are the two players in this draft who could be big-time stars (see Reggie Bush and Vince Young of 2006), so I think he’s worth the gamble.
Who They Should Pick: Russell

2. Detroit Lions – Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
Thomas is probably my favorite guy in this draft. Check out Peter King’s SI article on him from last week—he’s totally grounded, humble and immensely talented. Left tackle has become a little hit-and-miss over the years, with Robert Gallery, etc., but I think Thomas will be, at worst, a very solid tackle for 10 years to come and the Lions need that kind of stability right now. Other options for Detroit are Clemson DE Gaines Adams, who apparently they like but I think is a little high for this pick, and Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn.
Who They Should Pick: Calvin Johnson, WR, Ga. Tech. The Lions can’t pick another wideout first (after Charles Rogers and Mike Williams) and they have some good ones in Roy Williams and Furrey, but again, there are two stars in this draft and Johnson is one of them.

3. Cleveland Browns – Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
The Browns need a QB and Quinn wants to play for the Browns, so this is a perfect fit. Right? Well, on paper at least, but I’m not a huge Quinn fan. He’s a solid QB who has played in a pro-style offense and is clearly a first rounder. He’s just not the No. 3 overall pick in the draft. Adrian Peterson would make an awful lot of sense here, since it appears Jamal Lewis is on his last legs, but the way running backs were shopped around the NFL this offseason, it’s hard to see a RB go No. 3.
Who They Should Pick: Calvin Johnson, WR, Ga. Tech. Same reasons as above—he’s just the best player here.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Calvin Johnson, WR, Ga. Tech
Jon Gruden loves offense and the Bucs receiving corps could undoubtedly use a boost, as can Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia, Jake Plummer or whoever else might be throwing in Gruden’s pass happy offense this season.
Who They Should Pick: Johnson. Everything about this pick makes sense.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
I’d be lying if I said I knew a whole lot about Adams, but most people are considering him the best defensive player in the draft so I’ll defer to the experts. And the Cardinals, who possess a potent offense, finished last season ranked 29th in defense, so that side of the ball desperately needs an upgrade.
Who They Should Pick: Adams.

Players who should be drafted next: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma; LaRon Landry, S, LSU; Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville; Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal.

Potential Top 10 busts: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan; Levi Brown, OT, Penn State; Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas.

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