Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Chasing Away the Ghost of Rafael Santana
I was going to post this last week, but then we had the Masters so I decided to hold off. And while I contemplated an NHL playoffs preview (in which I would pick the team with the cooler uniform), I decided to stick with baseball. And since we still have some 155 games left, it’s still early enough for a preview.
National League
NL East: Mets, Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals
NL Central: Cardinals, Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies, Giants
Wild card: Braves
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt, Astros
Playoffs:
NLDS: Mets over Cardinals; Dodgers over Braves
NLCS: Mets over Dodgers
Mostly, I have no clue what to make of the NL Central, which could unfold in any order without surprising me. If Chris Carpenter is out for a while, the Cards are in major trouble, and the Brewers are very talented but also very young; still; I’m rooting for them to finally come through. Regardless, the best teams are the Mets, Braves and Dodgers, so I expect one of those three to make the World Series. My thinking is that the Mets will be bolstered by the return of Pedro, Mota and Sanchez and will be the most dangerous team come playoff time (even if the Braves win the East).
As to the individual awards, why pick against Pujols when he finishes in the top 3 every year? (Though don’t write off Reyes, especially if he goes 20-20 in triples in homers). And Oswalt is simply the best pitcher in the NL—he’s due for a Cy.
American League
AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays
AL Central: Indians, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Royals
AL West: Angels, A’s, Rangers, Mariners
Wild card: Red Sox
AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Twins
Playoffs
ALDS: Angels over Red Sox; Yankees over Indians
ALCS: Angels over Yankees
The AL is so tough, with all but the O’s, D-Rays, Royals and Mariners having a legit shot at the postseason. I know the Indians are the trendy pick, but they’re also very talented and have more experience than people give them credit for. The Tigers look great but are due to come back to earth. Of course, all predictions could change if either the Yankees or the Red Sox get Clemens, who would be a major factor in the postseason. Still, for now the Angels have the best balance between youth, versatility and strength in the bullpen and in the rotation, so they’re the pick.
As to the individuals, I initially pegged Rich Harden as the Cy and he has the stuff to do it. But Santana has proven to be the best pitcher in baseball over the past three seasons, so I’d be dumb to pick against him now. And Vlad is just an amazing hitter who always seems to get lost in the best right-handed hitter arguments.
World Series: Mets over Angels
I know the AL is the better league, but I’m not going to be a negative Mets’ fan this year. The offense is sick, with both power (Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Alou) and speed (Reyes, plus Wright and Beltran can run), the bench has good depth with Julio Franco, David Newhan and Endy Chavez, and the pitching is due to get some real talent coming in at midseason. Also watch for John Maine and Oliver Perez to have solid seasons, which will offset any potential broken hips suffered by El Duque. Plus, with Pedro coming in at midseason, the Mets should be hitting their stride come October. I’m a believer.
National League
NL East: Mets, Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals
NL Central: Cardinals, Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies, Giants
Wild card: Braves
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt, Astros
Playoffs:
NLDS: Mets over Cardinals; Dodgers over Braves
NLCS: Mets over Dodgers
Mostly, I have no clue what to make of the NL Central, which could unfold in any order without surprising me. If Chris Carpenter is out for a while, the Cards are in major trouble, and the Brewers are very talented but also very young; still; I’m rooting for them to finally come through. Regardless, the best teams are the Mets, Braves and Dodgers, so I expect one of those three to make the World Series. My thinking is that the Mets will be bolstered by the return of Pedro, Mota and Sanchez and will be the most dangerous team come playoff time (even if the Braves win the East).
As to the individual awards, why pick against Pujols when he finishes in the top 3 every year? (Though don’t write off Reyes, especially if he goes 20-20 in triples in homers). And Oswalt is simply the best pitcher in the NL—he’s due for a Cy.
American League
AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays
AL Central: Indians, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Royals
AL West: Angels, A’s, Rangers, Mariners
Wild card: Red Sox
AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Twins
Playoffs
ALDS: Angels over Red Sox; Yankees over Indians
ALCS: Angels over Yankees
The AL is so tough, with all but the O’s, D-Rays, Royals and Mariners having a legit shot at the postseason. I know the Indians are the trendy pick, but they’re also very talented and have more experience than people give them credit for. The Tigers look great but are due to come back to earth. Of course, all predictions could change if either the Yankees or the Red Sox get Clemens, who would be a major factor in the postseason. Still, for now the Angels have the best balance between youth, versatility and strength in the bullpen and in the rotation, so they’re the pick.
As to the individuals, I initially pegged Rich Harden as the Cy and he has the stuff to do it. But Santana has proven to be the best pitcher in baseball over the past three seasons, so I’d be dumb to pick against him now. And Vlad is just an amazing hitter who always seems to get lost in the best right-handed hitter arguments.
World Series: Mets over Angels
I know the AL is the better league, but I’m not going to be a negative Mets’ fan this year. The offense is sick, with both power (Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Alou) and speed (Reyes, plus Wright and Beltran can run), the bench has good depth with Julio Franco, David Newhan and Endy Chavez, and the pitching is due to get some real talent coming in at midseason. Also watch for John Maine and Oliver Perez to have solid seasons, which will offset any potential broken hips suffered by El Duque. Plus, with Pedro coming in at midseason, the Mets should be hitting their stride come October. I’m a believer.
# posted by EJ @ 2:13 PM 
Comments:
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Come on. We can't let the hockey post have the most comments, and have the first baseball post have hockey related comments. This is ridculous.
This place is turning into nothing but hockey and golf.
Joe, don't you have a baby to watch or something?
I know I'm a red sox fan, but it's hard for me to picture the Yankees rotation leading that far into the playoffs. Unless, of course, A-Rod continues to hit a homerun a game.
This place is turning into nothing but hockey and golf.
Joe, don't you have a baby to watch or something?
I know I'm a red sox fan, but it's hard for me to picture the Yankees rotation leading that far into the playoffs. Unless, of course, A-Rod continues to hit a homerun a game.
The Yanks' rotation is a mess right now, and that could make a difference. Their offense is still unbelievable, though, and they still have Rivera. Plus, pretty soon Hughes will be in the rotation (Igawa sucks) and the Yanks are definitely the odds-on favorites to get Clemens. The Sox are definitely helped by Papelbon going back to closing. That opens a spot in the rotation for Clemens (and you know he loves the fact that his signing could swing the division).
For now, though, I kind of think of the Yanks as the Braves from previous years. I'm picking them until someone knocks them off. Plus, it's only a matter of time before JD Drew goes down for the season.
As to the Mets, after raving about the Mets and Perez and Maine, Perez was awful last night. Awful (bears repeating). He walked as many guys as he recorded outs. In 2-2/3 he gave up three runs on one hit and stranded six. That's nearly impossible. Of course, he has another 28 starts to make it up.
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For now, though, I kind of think of the Yanks as the Braves from previous years. I'm picking them until someone knocks them off. Plus, it's only a matter of time before JD Drew goes down for the season.
As to the Mets, after raving about the Mets and Perez and Maine, Perez was awful last night. Awful (bears repeating). He walked as many guys as he recorded outs. In 2-2/3 he gave up three runs on one hit and stranded six. That's nearly impossible. Of course, he has another 28 starts to make it up.
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