Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Playoff Breakdown
I have no idea who’s going to win the Super Bowl. My gut says Ravens over Saints, but I can’t stand the Ravens, so let’s say Chargers-Saints instead. Of course, before trusting me you should perhaps review my picks from before the season , where I had the Panthers beating the Colts (my picks are simply awful but, in my defense, SI had the Dolphins and Panthers in the Super Bowl).
The wild-card round will likely get most of its attention for the coaching matchups, which include mentor-protégé games in New England (Belichick-Mangini) and Indianapolis (Dungy-Edwards), plus a game (Holmgren-Parcells) in which both coaches have taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. The most common thread among the eight wild-card coaches is the Jets. At one time, four of the eight have been the head coach of the Jets, though Belichick had a pretty short stay.
Colts-Chiefs
You have to think the Colts were the big loser after the AFC playoff meltdown of the Bengals and Broncos. A Broncos’ win and the Colts play the Jets, who would have struggled to expose the Colts’ horrifically bad run defense (which was the seventh-worst in NFL history this season). The Chiefs won’t have that problem, with Larry Johnson the main reason Kansas City is still playing. That said, the Colts should be able to score at will on a subpar Chiefs’ defense. Note: The Colts are 8-0 at home this year; the Chiefs are 3-5 on the road.
Patriots-Jets
I was thrilled the Jets didn’t have to play the Colts, who they don’t match up well against (especially at home in a dome), but the Patriots really aren’t much easier. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick quietly won six of seven to close the season and, to be honest, this Jets’ team has overachieved all season. The good news is that the Jets a) are on a roll and b) won in Foxborough earlier this year, so they know they can do it. In fact, the Pats were 5-3 at home this year, while the Jets were 6-2 on the road. Note: To show that QB rating is a worthless stat, Chad Pennington has the seventh-highest QB rating of all-time; Brady is eighth.
Eagles-Giants
The Giants couldn’t have done any less to make the playoffs, but here they are and in the watered-down NFC they are actually dangerous. This is a talented team in a league where the favorite (Bears) has no idea if its quarterback is any good. That said, the Eagles played as well as anyone down the stretch and beat the Giants just a few weeks ago. And the Eagles have the best offensive line in football. Note: Like the Jets-Pats, this is the third team these teams have faced each other this year, with each team winning on the road the first time around.
Seahawks-Cowboys
The Seahawks lost three of four to limp into the playoffs. The Cowboys last their last two, including to the Eagles with the division title on the line and to the Lions, which is just sad. Tony Romo no longer looks like a Pro Bowler (or even an NFL starter), but if they play up to their capabilities, the Cowboys are actually the better team here. Of course, the game is in Seattle, where the Seahawks traditionally play well (the Seahawks went 5-3 at home this year and 8-0 in 2005). Note: The Seahawks’ swoon this year can be attributed to injuries, and while Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander are healthy, Seattle has a lot of injuries to its receiving corps and secondary.
The wild-card round will likely get most of its attention for the coaching matchups, which include mentor-protégé games in New England (Belichick-Mangini) and Indianapolis (Dungy-Edwards), plus a game (Holmgren-Parcells) in which both coaches have taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. The most common thread among the eight wild-card coaches is the Jets. At one time, four of the eight have been the head coach of the Jets, though Belichick had a pretty short stay.
Colts-Chiefs
You have to think the Colts were the big loser after the AFC playoff meltdown of the Bengals and Broncos. A Broncos’ win and the Colts play the Jets, who would have struggled to expose the Colts’ horrifically bad run defense (which was the seventh-worst in NFL history this season). The Chiefs won’t have that problem, with Larry Johnson the main reason Kansas City is still playing. That said, the Colts should be able to score at will on a subpar Chiefs’ defense. Note: The Colts are 8-0 at home this year; the Chiefs are 3-5 on the road.
Patriots-Jets
I was thrilled the Jets didn’t have to play the Colts, who they don’t match up well against (especially at home in a dome), but the Patriots really aren’t much easier. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick quietly won six of seven to close the season and, to be honest, this Jets’ team has overachieved all season. The good news is that the Jets a) are on a roll and b) won in Foxborough earlier this year, so they know they can do it. In fact, the Pats were 5-3 at home this year, while the Jets were 6-2 on the road. Note: To show that QB rating is a worthless stat, Chad Pennington has the seventh-highest QB rating of all-time; Brady is eighth.
Eagles-Giants
The Giants couldn’t have done any less to make the playoffs, but here they are and in the watered-down NFC they are actually dangerous. This is a talented team in a league where the favorite (Bears) has no idea if its quarterback is any good. That said, the Eagles played as well as anyone down the stretch and beat the Giants just a few weeks ago. And the Eagles have the best offensive line in football. Note: Like the Jets-Pats, this is the third team these teams have faced each other this year, with each team winning on the road the first time around.
Seahawks-Cowboys
The Seahawks lost three of four to limp into the playoffs. The Cowboys last their last two, including to the Eagles with the division title on the line and to the Lions, which is just sad. Tony Romo no longer looks like a Pro Bowler (or even an NFL starter), but if they play up to their capabilities, the Cowboys are actually the better team here. Of course, the game is in Seattle, where the Seahawks traditionally play well (the Seahawks went 5-3 at home this year and 8-0 in 2005). Note: The Seahawks’ swoon this year can be attributed to injuries, and while Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander are healthy, Seattle has a lot of injuries to its receiving corps and secondary.
# posted by EJ @ 9:49 AM 
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As 'Meat's resident Eagle fan, I'll comment on the Philly-NYG game: It scares me more than a bit. Plaxico, when not being flagged for pushing off, is an Eagle-killer, and the Giants blew a bunch of big play opportunities in the last game. If Eli plays well (about a one in 10 chance), the Eagles could be on the wrong side of a shootout.
By the by, did you see that Philly signed Koy Detmer for the playoff run? I don't think I'm alone in saying I wouldn't be crushed if Garcia and Feeley went down, as long as it means one more belt-whippin' dance from Koyboy.
By the by, did you see that Philly signed Koy Detmer for the playoff run? I don't think I'm alone in saying I wouldn't be crushed if Garcia and Feeley went down, as long as it means one more belt-whippin' dance from Koyboy.
The best part is that he apparently was signed just to be the holder on field goals and extra points. And I did love the belt-whippin' dance -- ranks up there with the Ickey shuffle and Gus Ferrotte slamming his head against a concrete wall.
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