Tuesday, November 07, 2006

 

Vote Today!

Ok. I'm not cool. We know this, so we'll move on from there. So since there's no sports to break down today, here's a look at the 2006 election:

The House of Representatives
The democrats need to pick up 15 seats to gain control, and prognosticators are predicting anywhere between 20 and 40. If it's 40, it's a big night for the dems, but that seems a bit high to me even if the climate is not good for repblicans right now.
Prediction: It's a huge upset if the republicans keep power in the House, like the Indians beating the Yankees in Major League I or the Jets beating the Colts in Spuer Bowl III. If it happens, Karl Rove will be crowned king of elections (again). More likely, the dems take 25 seats and control of the House for the first time since 1994.

Senate
There are nine senate elections of note and the dems need to win eight to control the senate. Incumbent or current party in power listed first:

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D) vs. Mike Steele (R)
Steele is running very strong in a typically blue state and in 2004 he would have won. Expect Cardin to win here on his democratic roots, but don't count Steele out in the future.
Prediction: Cardin

Missouri
Jim Talent (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)
This is a head heat in a very evenly split state. Talent is the incumbent but has been brought down by his opposition to stem cell research, which just happens to be a ballot initiative in Missouri this year. This race is also notable for the Cards' Jeff Suppan stumping against stem cell research, and Michael J. Fox campaigning for it on behalf of McCaskill.
Prediction: Michael J. Fox (er, McCaskill).

Montana
Conrad Burns (R) vs. Jon Tester (D)
Burns has been tainted by corruption and portrayed as in the pocket of W. But it's not by accident that democrats rarely win in Montana, and Bush has cruised easily here the last two elections. Not this time: Tester, who has a mean flat-top, wins an election that may take a few days to decide.
Prediction: Tester

New Jersey
Bob Menendez (D) vs. Tom Kean Jr. (R)
This is a seat that should be safely democrat in a typically blue state. Tom Kean is running a campaign built largely on the popularity of his father (the ex-governor and head of the 9-11 commission) and the ineptitude of Menendez, who cannot shake rumors of corruption. Again, this is a race Kean wins two years ago, but not now.
Prediction: Menendez

Pennsylvania
Rick Santorum (R) vs. Bob Casey (D)
Santorum has made some headway in recent days, but it appears the republican's No. 3 man will be out by the end of the day. Of all the seats mentioned here, this might be the surest bet to swing blue.
Prediction: Casey

Ohio
Mike DeWine (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
The Foley and Abramoff scandals have hit very close to home for DeWine, and they will likely cost him his senate seat against Brown, who has run a dogged if somewhat uneven campaign.
Prediction: Brown

Rhode Island
Lincoln Chafee (R) vs. Shelden Whitehouse (D)
Chafee has made up a lot of ground recently and is more liberal than many democrats (he wrote in the name of Bush 41 rather than voting for Bush 43 in the 2004 election and opposed the war from the outset). Still, it says "R" next to his name on the ballot, and that will likely cost him in perhaps the most liberal state in America.
Prediction: Whitehouse

Tennessee
Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford (D)
Right up there with Menendez-Kean and Allen-Webb, this has been the ugliest campaign of the 2006 season. Ford is attempting to become the first black democrat elected to the senate since the Reconstruction, which is heady territory. He has run a smart, moderate campaign but has likely turned off too many voters to win a solidly red state.
Prediction: Corker

Virginia
George Allen (R) vs. Jim Webb (D)
Recent polls have shown Webb with a slight lead over the son of the former Redskins head coach and the former favorite to win the republican nomination for president in 2008. It's been a long fall for Allen, who was expected to breeze to victory. Still, his name and incumbency seem to me too strong for him to fall completely out of favor.
Prediction: Allen

So there you have it. We have a split congress, with the dems taking the House and the republicans holding on in the senate, 50-49-1 (with Independent Joe Lieberman beating out Democrat Ned Lamont in Connecticut). And maybe even 52-47-1 if Montana and Missouri swing the republicans' way.

Comments:
EJ, you forget that Jim Talent, like most Republicans, has Jesus on his side. Or at least the guy who played Him in that movie made by the Jew-hating, policewoman-mammary-admiring drunk.
 
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