Tuesday, November 28, 2006

 

Off the Wagon

It’s coming on bowl season and the NFL playoffs, which means it’s that bandwagon time of the year:

On the Wagon
USC. The Trojans completed a very impressive three-game stretch by whipping Notre Dame on Saturday. That followed a 14-point win over Cal and a big win over Oregon, which looked impressive coming in. You could definitely argue that the Pac-10 is the No. 2 conference in college football this year, and USC is its champ. Plus, the Trojans boast non-conference wins over Arkansas, Nebraska and Notre Dame (making them the only school in D-I to not play a single non-BCS school). At this point they deserve to be No. 2.

Off the Wagon
Florida. Coach Urban Meyer argued that No. 2 shouldn’t be about style points. He’s right. But once you lose even one game, style points definitely factor into the equation. And while their schedules have been similarly difficult (Florida and USC have each played 10 bowl eligible teams), USC dominated down the stretch while Florida eked out wins. If USC loses to UCLA and Florida beats Arkansas this weekend, I’d give Florida the edge over Michigan for No. 2. Still, I think it’ll be a moot point (or a moo point, like a cow’s opinion, depending on how you look at it).

On the Wagon
Boise State. They throttled a very good Nevada team on the road this weekend, likely securing a deserved BCS berth. This team obviously wouldn’t be undefeated in the SEC or the Big 12, but they can hang with anyone in either of those leagues.

Off the Wagon
Wisconsin. The Badgers are a fine team, a borderline Top 10 team, but currently they are being rewarded in the polls for having one loss rather than being penalized for playing a soft schedule. Though not their fault, they dodged Ohio State this year, and lost soundly to Michigan. Otherwise they won in a down year for the Big 10, and their non-conference opponents were San Diego State, Buffalo, Bowling Green and Western Carolina. No way Wisconsin should be ranked ahead of an Auburn team that beat Florida and LSU, with losses against Arkansas and Georgia.

On the Wagon
The Jets. I can’t believe this team is 6-5, and they have a real chance to win every single one of their remaining games (Packers, Bills, Dolphins, Vikings, Raiders). More likely they finish 8-8 or 9-7 in an AFC that will require 10 wins to make the playoffs, but it’s still a great season for a team picked to go 4-12.

Off the Wagon
Playoff QBs. Jake Plummer is already benched—an amazing move to start a rookie down the stretch for a team with Super Bowl aspirations—and Rex Grossman could be next. Finally, Eli Manning has been awful as the Giants have lost their last three games, throwing an inexplicable INT in the final minute on Sunday. The good news for Eli is that he has no veteran behind him to take his job. That, however, might not be good news for the Giants.

On the Wagon
AFC Divisional leaders. All four divisional leaders—the Pats, Ravens, Colts and Chargers—in the AFC boast a two-game cushion with six games to go. Most surprising to me is the Ravens. I thought this team was overrated coming into the season, but Steve McNair has been very efficient, they’ve won close games and they’ve been scoring points since Brian Billick took over the play calling. This team is capable of winning the Super Bowl.

Off the Wagon
The NFC. Football’s four best teams are in the AFC, and a slew of 5-6 teams are still in the running for a playoff spot in the senior division. It says something that the Panthers can lose to the Redskins and the Ginters can blow a 21-point lead to the Titans, both teams fall to 6-5, and both are still in line to make the postseason.

Comments:
Here's a question for you, EJ - presuming that you think Ohio State is #1, who do you think is the second best team in the country? Not who should be ranked #2, but who is second best?
 
I really think it's USC. I think this conversation is really between Michigan and USC. Florida's defense is awesome, but their offense can disappear and their kicking game is awful. Watching USC the last few weeks, I've been really impressed by their balance (run and pass, offense and defense) and I think they would beat Michigan on a neutral field. The Wolverines are a solid team, but that game against Ohio State wasn't as close as the score. The Buckeyes were always in control, and won despite three turnovers to none for Michigan.

Your thoughts?
 
I think that all 3 of Fla, Mich and USC can make the argument, especially if Florida wins this weekend. I'd lean toward Michigan. I disagree with your assessment of the OSU/Michigan game. I thought Michigan was very much in it until the late hit during OSU's final TD drive. And I think that Michigan was close to even with OSU, considering that two of OSU's TDs were somewhat fluke-ish 50+ yard runs (in their other 11 games, Michigan gave up 3 TD runs, with the longest one being 2 yards).

That said, I've always been pro-Michigan for no known reason, and anti-USC. Part of my anti-USC sentiment this year comes from seeing the 3 games prior to their Oregon state loss (against Washington State, Arizona State and Washington, combined record of 18-18), of which they could have easily lost any of the three. But I must admit that the last 3 games have been impressive...

Kirk Herbstreet on ESPN had it right when he said that an "add-on" game would be perfect this year. Have one bowl be OSU/Fla, and another (Rose) be USC/Michigan, then add on one more game the following week with the winners playing.
 
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