Friday, November 10, 2006
Let's Hear From the Meaters
Now that Rutgers has shocked Louisville -- a game the Scarlet Knights dominated after halftime -- it appears very, very likely that a one-loss team will be playing for the national championship against the winner of Ohio State and Michigan (conventional wisdom saying Rutgers would have too far to climb to get to No. 2, plus the Knights must still beat West Virginia).
So who should it be?
The Candidates (assuming they finish with one loss):
Cal
For: Only loss came in Week 1 at Tennessee; will have defeated USC and swept Pac-10 if the Bears finish 11-1
Against: Cal got killed by Tennessee, reinforcing the notion that a one-loss SEC school trumps a one-loss Pac-10 school
Florida
For: Will have won the top-rated league in college football; will have defeated Florida State; only loss was a very close one at Auburn
Against: Underwhelming wins over Vandy, Georgia and others; suspect offense
Texas
For: Only loss came to No. 1 Ohio State and came early in the season, wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Nebraska all came on the road or on a neutral field
Against: Wins over Neb and Tex Tech came by a combined six points; pollsters may not want to see a Texas-Ohio State rematch
USC
For: To finish with one loss, USC must run the table the next three weeks with wins over Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame (though all three are at home), providing the Tojans with a lot of big wins on a national stage down the stretch
Against: Sole loss came to Oregon State, not a Top 15 team; looked unimpressive in series of wins leading up to Oregon State
Others have a chance, including Rutgers and one-loss-ers Arkansas, Auburn and Notre Dame, but a lot has to break right for any of these schools to have a chance. The final option is a Michigan-Ohio State rematch, though that appears unlikely.
Thoughts????
So who should it be?
The Candidates (assuming they finish with one loss):
Cal
For: Only loss came in Week 1 at Tennessee; will have defeated USC and swept Pac-10 if the Bears finish 11-1
Against: Cal got killed by Tennessee, reinforcing the notion that a one-loss SEC school trumps a one-loss Pac-10 school
Florida
For: Will have won the top-rated league in college football; will have defeated Florida State; only loss was a very close one at Auburn
Against: Underwhelming wins over Vandy, Georgia and others; suspect offense
Texas
For: Only loss came to No. 1 Ohio State and came early in the season, wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Nebraska all came on the road or on a neutral field
Against: Wins over Neb and Tex Tech came by a combined six points; pollsters may not want to see a Texas-Ohio State rematch
USC
For: To finish with one loss, USC must run the table the next three weeks with wins over Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame (though all three are at home), providing the Tojans with a lot of big wins on a national stage down the stretch
Against: Sole loss came to Oregon State, not a Top 15 team; looked unimpressive in series of wins leading up to Oregon State
Others have a chance, including Rutgers and one-loss-ers Arkansas, Auburn and Notre Dame, but a lot has to break right for any of these schools to have a chance. The final option is a Michigan-Ohio State rematch, though that appears unlikely.
Thoughts????
# posted by EJ @ 10:38 AM 
Comments:
<< Home
Florida clearly is in the driver's seat. However, it is not an easy road. South Carolina has proven to be pretty tough (especially with the Ballcoach returning to the swamp?), then they have to beat Fla St. as well as either Arkansas or Auburn in the championship game. Florida's chances: 38%.
After Florida, Texas seems to be the preferred team. My feeling, though, is that the Big 12 is very weak, as in Big East-level weak. Nebraska? Oklahoma? Tx A&M? Nobody in the entire conference has a respectible non-conference win. However, if Florida stumbles, Texas will fill the void. Texas chances: 40%. That is, unless...
...USC wins out. The only problem with that scenario is that it ain't gonna happen. USC has Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame (not to mention a rivalry game with UCLA) left. I give them about a 15% chance of running the table. Their defense isn't that strong. USC's chances: 6% (factoring the likelihood of Fla running the table).
One would think that under some form of transitive logic, if Cal ran the table, they would be in. I do think Cal will run the table. However, they will get no respect (see: 2004). Texas would certainly be the choice over Cal if they both finish with 1 loss. Cal's chances: 2%.
For the first time ever, it seems, Notre Dame is actually getting less press than it should. They've only lost once (though ugly). They have quality wins over Ga Tech, Penn State and ... well, that's it. Their schedule absolutely sucks. But if they go into the Colisseum and dismantle USC (a distinct possibility in my estimation), you know they will get more support than they deserve. ND's chances: 6%.
Rutgers (literally) needs Texas, Auburn, Florida, USC, Notre Dame, Cal, Arkansas and even Wisconsin to lose, while at the same time beating W. Va. Even if that all happened, Michigan might be the choice. Rutgers' chances: <1%.
The one real question mark (for me) is this - what happens when Ohio State beats Michigan 31-28 in overtime on a fluke turnover or phantom penalty call? Compound that with a florida loss. So Texas is the presumed candidate, except that Texas got easily handled by OSU, while Michigan played them tough. Just unfortunate scheduling? I personally would be inclined to see a Michigan rematch in that situation. Michigan's chances (presuming they lose to OSU): 4%.
Total chance of the remainders somehow pulling it out (namely Arkansas, Auburn and Wisconsin): 4%. *Note that if Arkansas wins out, they will have a very impressive resume, with wins over Alabama, Auburn, S. Carolina, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida. However, those final 3 games are yet to take place. Not gonna happen.
Yeah, I'm a dork, it adds up to 100%.
After Florida, Texas seems to be the preferred team. My feeling, though, is that the Big 12 is very weak, as in Big East-level weak. Nebraska? Oklahoma? Tx A&M? Nobody in the entire conference has a respectible non-conference win. However, if Florida stumbles, Texas will fill the void. Texas chances: 40%. That is, unless...
...USC wins out. The only problem with that scenario is that it ain't gonna happen. USC has Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame (not to mention a rivalry game with UCLA) left. I give them about a 15% chance of running the table. Their defense isn't that strong. USC's chances: 6% (factoring the likelihood of Fla running the table).
One would think that under some form of transitive logic, if Cal ran the table, they would be in. I do think Cal will run the table. However, they will get no respect (see: 2004). Texas would certainly be the choice over Cal if they both finish with 1 loss. Cal's chances: 2%.
For the first time ever, it seems, Notre Dame is actually getting less press than it should. They've only lost once (though ugly). They have quality wins over Ga Tech, Penn State and ... well, that's it. Their schedule absolutely sucks. But if they go into the Colisseum and dismantle USC (a distinct possibility in my estimation), you know they will get more support than they deserve. ND's chances: 6%.
Rutgers (literally) needs Texas, Auburn, Florida, USC, Notre Dame, Cal, Arkansas and even Wisconsin to lose, while at the same time beating W. Va. Even if that all happened, Michigan might be the choice. Rutgers' chances: <1%.
The one real question mark (for me) is this - what happens when Ohio State beats Michigan 31-28 in overtime on a fluke turnover or phantom penalty call? Compound that with a florida loss. So Texas is the presumed candidate, except that Texas got easily handled by OSU, while Michigan played them tough. Just unfortunate scheduling? I personally would be inclined to see a Michigan rematch in that situation. Michigan's chances (presuming they lose to OSU): 4%.
Total chance of the remainders somehow pulling it out (namely Arkansas, Auburn and Wisconsin): 4%. *Note that if Arkansas wins out, they will have a very impressive resume, with wins over Alabama, Auburn, S. Carolina, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida. However, those final 3 games are yet to take place. Not gonna happen.
Yeah, I'm a dork, it adds up to 100%.
I can't compete with BT's number-crunching, but I think it's important to reiterate EJ's point that polls still have a lot of power in this -- the human element is going to do everything it can to steer the rankings to an interesting matchup. Which means, in my mind, four things: No Ohio St.-Texas rematch, since it wasn't that great of a game the first time; no Ohio St.-Michigan rematch unless it's an amazing game the first time; no USC, since they're being compared not just to the rest of the country but (unfairly so) to what they were in the last few seasons; and if the voters can get an SEC team in there, they'll do it, to reward the conference for being so tough and so fun to watch. Look for Florida or Auburn to make the title game.
I looked back and Auburn's schedule is stronger than I thought -- they're a legit contender if they can get into the SEC title game (of course, to do so they need Arkansas to lose to Tennessee AND LSU, which could happen).
Other interesting college football notes, both BYU and Hawaii are killing their opponents (both should be in the Top 25) and Maryland somehow snuck into BCS contention in a very average and weird ACC.
Conference rankings in order:
1. SEC; 2. Pac-10; 3. Big 12; 4. Big 10; 5. Big East; 6. ACC; 7. Mountain West; 8. WAC
And Nos. 4-6 are pretty close -- outside Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Big 10 stinks this year.
My Top 10 teams (as of today):
1. Ohio St; 2. Michigan; 3. Florida; 4. Texas; 5. Auburn; 6. Cal; 7. Rutgers; 8. USC; 9. Arkansas; 10. Notre Dame
Keeping in mind that USC would jump into the Top 5 if it runs the table, which, like Big Thunder, I doubt will happen.
Post a Comment
Other interesting college football notes, both BYU and Hawaii are killing their opponents (both should be in the Top 25) and Maryland somehow snuck into BCS contention in a very average and weird ACC.
Conference rankings in order:
1. SEC; 2. Pac-10; 3. Big 12; 4. Big 10; 5. Big East; 6. ACC; 7. Mountain West; 8. WAC
And Nos. 4-6 are pretty close -- outside Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Big 10 stinks this year.
My Top 10 teams (as of today):
1. Ohio St; 2. Michigan; 3. Florida; 4. Texas; 5. Auburn; 6. Cal; 7. Rutgers; 8. USC; 9. Arkansas; 10. Notre Dame
Keeping in mind that USC would jump into the Top 5 if it runs the table, which, like Big Thunder, I doubt will happen.
<< Home
