Sportsmeat

Say what you will about the need for a playoff system in college football — or wait a couple of minutes and let Tommy Tuberville do it for you — but only two teams will play for the BCS championship this season. And at this point, two-thirds of the way through the season, the majority of the pretenders for the national title game has been eliminated. That leaves, by my count, 11 teams with a legitimate shot to play for the championship.

That does not include Boise State or Rutgers, both of which are undefeated. If either ran the table—which for Rutgers would mean wins over Louisville and West Virginia—they still wouldn’t climb into the Top 2. So, that considered, here’s a look at the teams that are left, what they have to do and what their chances are for playing in the final BCS game on Jan. 8 (current BCS rankings included for teams):

The Big 10: No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan
This is the easiest equation to figure out. Ohio State and Michigan are 1-2 in every significant poll and are both undefeated. Assuming Michigan doesn’t slip up at Indiana, the Wolverines and Buckeyes will meet Nov. 18 with the Big 10 title and BCS title game berth on the line. Needless to say, it’s the biggest game of the season. The winner moves on to play in the finale, the loser is likely eliminated (it’s possible the loser could remain No. 2 if it falls in a very, very close game, but pollsters usually punish those who lose late).

The SEC: No. 4 Florida, No. 6 Auburn and No. 11 Tennessee
As has been well documented, the SEC is brutal. Clearly the best conference in the country. So if one of these three teams wins out and takes the SEC title game, they will have a strong case to be No. 2. At the moment Florida holds the inside track to the SEC East by virtue of its win over Tennessee (who plays LSU this weekend), but a loss at Florida State on Nov. 25 could wreck the Gators’ chances. Moreover, Auburn needs to win out (which means beating Alabama on Nov. 18) and have Arkansas lose twice to win the SEC West. The Razorbacks still have to play at South Carolina and face off against Tennessee and LSU, so expect that to happen.

If Auburn can beat Florida a second time, coupled with an earlier win over LSU, the Tigers will have a strong case. But don’t be fooled—as good as Auburn and Florida are, they’re both flawed teams and will have a tough time leapfrogging West Virginia in the rankings if the Mountaineers win out.

The Big East: No. 3 West Virginia and No. 5 Louisville
Thursday night’s game at Louisville will narrow the Big East title contenders down to one. Buoyed by its bowl win over Georgia this year, West Virginia has the higher profile but has yet to play a team that has even sniffed the rankings this year. That said, if the Mountaineers can beat Louisville, Pitt and Rutgers down the stretch, it’s hard to see them finishing out of the money for the BCS championship. Louisville, meantime, has a big win (31-7 over Miami, albeit a reeling Miami team) and has played a bit rougher non-conference schedule, but lacks the same level of national respect.

The Pac-10: No. 8 USC and No. 10 Cal
The Trojans have not looked great this season, but still only have one loss and can make up a lot of ground if they finish with wins over Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame (all at USC). If they win those three games, expect USC to be right in the BCS title game argument with the SEC champion and the West Virginia-Louisville winner. Cal, meantime, has a real chance. Their lone loss came in the first game and to a Tennessee team that has proven to be much stronger than originally estimated. If the Bears can win at USC, and the SEC teams knock each other off, they’ll have a shot, though the lack of a pedigree name will hurt them (see Louisville).

The Others: No. 7 Texas and No. 9 Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s 47-21 loss to Michigan probably killed its chances and, to be honest, the Irish’s schedule does not appear that daunting in retrospect (the only currently ranked team they’ve beaten is No. 20 Georgia Tech, and that was 14-10 in the first week of the season). A win over USC would go a long way toward boosting their chances, but there appear to be too many teams to climb over to get to No. 2. Texas, however, could have a shot. Games remain against Texas A&M and in the Big 12 title game, and victories there will go a long way. Still, it’s hard to see the Longhorns climbing over an undefeated West Virginia team, or a one-loss SEC champion or a one-loss USC. A lot of things will have to break right here.


The Prediction
This is a crapshoot. Very seldom does this many teams still have a shot at this point in the season, particularly with so many still to play each other (Michigan-Ohio State, Louisville-West Virginia, USC-Cal, USC-Notre Dame, and perhaps Auburn-Florida Take 2 or Auburn-Tennessee).

So the easiest way to go is to eliminate. Tennessee is gone this weekend with a home loss to LSU, and West Virginia knocks off Louisville on Thursday (though expect a very close game; the Cardinals defense is better than it’s been in quite some time). I have a gut feeling Cal is going to beat USC, and then the Trojans will take it out on Notre Dame. In the SEC title game, Auburn nips Florida again, while Texas wins out. Finally, in the big one, heavy favorite Ohio State beats Michigan 31-20, which would still be the Buckeyes closest game this year (right now it’s the 24-7 win at Texas).

That leaves Ohio State, West Virginia, Auburn, Texas and Cal, and they’ll finish in that order. Ohio State beats West Virginia in the title game, leaving Tuberville to launch into yet another tirade against the BCS.