Sportsmeat

Earlier in the week I was thinking about making a similar post to EJ's recent lesson in pessimism. I was going to note that we don't have a true stud starter, and that its just unrealistic to think that Pedro will be strong enough in October to give more than 6 very good innings. I was going to mention that the Sanchez cab accident was huge, and that on top of that I thought it was a mistake to give up Nady for a 42 year old pitcher with a 1.6 WHIP. I was going to say that Aaron Heilman hasn't been living up to expectations, and that our corner outfielders these days are some combination of Endy Chavez (who has actually been way better than anyone could have expected), Lastings Milledge (not ready for prime time - yet), Ricky Ledee and Michael Tucker.

Then I realized something. The Metros lost their first three games of last week's Phillies series by a combined 27 to 4, and I didn't flinch. I truly could not have cared less. When I looked at the last game and didn't mind if they lost again and got swept by their division rivals, I realized that I was in unchartered territory.

The Mets have made this a laugher. They are winning over 60% of their games. 14 game division lead. 8 game lead for home field advantage. According to the nerds at Baseball Prospectus, they have a 99.99% chance of making the playoffs. That number has been up over 95% since mid-June, when they ripped off an 8-1 road trip to complete a 17-6 tear to take control of the NL East.

This season doesn't have much precedent for a 29 year old Met fan. The 1999 and 2000 incarnations were great teams, filled with players to root for. But that was different, as they were battling for a playoff spot the whole time. In fact, the 1999 team barely made the wild card, while this year's team is likely to finish with a nearly identical record, having not played a meaningful game since July.

So how is a Met fan to react? In 1999, you were watching every game. You were living and dying with each leadoff walk and botched sacrifice bunt. At work or in school, you knew who they were playing that night, who was on the mound, the status of all injuries, etc. And resultingly, those teams became beloved.

That behavior will happen again this year, but not until the playoffs. I just wonder what the 2006 team's legacy will be. They have the most likeable Met in history (Wright), the charismatic superstar (Pedro), good guy veterans (Floyd, Glavine, Delgado), exciting young players (Reyes, Milledge), and even a classic New York type (Lo Duca). And while their huge leads are more the result of the rest of the league sucking, they still have played well. If they were actually being pushed, its likely that their record would be even better.

I'm a San Franciscan, so I don't read the NY papers or listen to the Fan, but the impression that I'm getting out here is that Mets fans are all in agreeance with EJ. They spend their time worried about the bullpen arms and a righthanded bat off the bench. So to the Mets fan(s) reading this, I'd suggest you take the time now and again to appreciate this team. As we know all too well, a team this good does not come along very often.

Oh, and by way of a postscript, I feel I should respond to EJ's post. The Mets are going to play the Cardinals, the Dodgers, and likely either the Padres or the Reds. None of those teams have a real difference-making ace. I'd say the closest to that is Chris Carpenter, or possibly Brad Penny. Do they scare you? Penny has a 3.7 ERA. Who else will they be facing? Aaron Harang? Bronson Arroyo? Jake Peavy? The Mets should destroy those guys. And our pitching is fine. We continue to have the best ERA in the league, second in batting average allowed.

I think the Mets should be very strong in the playoffs. I'm glad Pedro won't touch a ball during August. That would be my plan even if he wasn't injured. And at the World Series level, well, I'll just say that anything can happen in baseball. Since 1990, 10 of the last 15 World Series' have been won by the team with the lesser regular season record. Not to say that the regular season record necessarily shows which team is better, but the bottom line is that the Mets could not possibly be worse than a 55-45 underdog in any series. Frankly, I'll take those odds. You just don't know when (or if) your team will be there again.

# posted by Big Thunder @ 1:56 PM