Sportsmeat

Sportsmeat US Open Preview

For all intents and purposes golf is over, football has yet to begin and the Mets have a huge lead (as do the Yankees), rendering baseball meaningless for the time being. Which means it’s time for the 2006 US Open and a (perhaps not-so-quick) quick rundown, with predictions, for the last major of the year and the final event of Andre Agassi’s career.

The big question, obviously, is how long Andre will stick around in his finale. Don’t wait for the second week to catch him. He has struggled with a back injury all season, missing the French Open and bowing out in straight sets to Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon. Overall, Agassi is 8-7 on 2006 and has dropped to 37th in the world, meaning he is unseeded at the Open. He played in only two events leading up to the Open, losing in the quarterfinals in Los Angeles to Fernando Gonzalez and falling in the first round in D.C. to Andrea Stoppini (and no, I’ve never heard of Stoppini either, though his name lends itself well to humor).

Agassi opens against Andrei Pavel, a very good player who has slipped in the rankings due to a few injury problems of his own. Agassi should get by Pavel but his chances of advancing much further are not good. He would play eighth-seeded Marcos Baghdatis in the second round, a very fit, strong player with a similar game to Agassi’s—but younger and in better health. No doubt fans are hoping for an Agassi-Andy Roddick matchup in the fourth round. Expect Roddick to be there … playing Baghdatis.

Now, on to the picks:

Women’s Semifinalists
Maria Sharapova vs. Serena Williams
Justine Henin-Hardenne vs. Elena Dementieva

Serena has played very little this year, but she looked good in two events this summer and is still the most intense competitor on the women’s tour. That should be enough for her to get through a brutal quarter that could include matchups with 17th seed Daniela Hantuchova, US Open Series champ Ana Ivanovic and Amelie Mauresmo (who has played just two matches since her victory at Wimbledon and is battling a sore shoulder). Her run, however, will stop at Sharapova, who had a fine summer season and who should thrive on the atmosphere and relatively quick hardcourts at the US Open.

Figure Henin-Hardenne to ease past Dementieva in the other semi. Henin-Hardenne has the easiest road to the semis of the top women’s players, while Dementieva should have enough to battle through a tough section that includes possible matchups with Venus Williams in the fourth round and 2004 US Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova (who just defeated Dementieva in New Haven) in the quarterfinals.

Henin-Hardenne does not often lose in the finals and Sharapova has struggled to break through after winning Wimbeldon two years ago, but this looks like Sharapova’s year. She is healthy, playing well and determined not to lose. Call it three sets, but give the title to Sharapova.

Men’s Semifinalists

Roger Federer vs. Tommy Haas
Andy Roddick vs. Rafael Nadal

Federer will likely have to face Juan Carlos Ferrero, who seems to be rounding into form, in the round of 16, but otherwise faces no major threats on his road to the semis. His opponent in the semis, however, is anyone’s guess. Fourth seed David Nalbandian had an awful summer. And while Andy Murray and Fernando Gonzalez finished in the top four of the US Open Series standings, neither is a threat to win the 2006 Open. Marat Safin is the most talented player in this quarter, but his confidence is shaky. That leaves Tommy Haas, an excellent hard court player who could even steal a set or two off Federer if he is on his game.

Roddick was having a terrible year before winning the Masters series event in Cincinnati, and now enters the Open with confidence and nothing to lose (having lost in the first round last year, he will be defending no rankings points this year). Also, under the guidance of Jimmy Connors, he is attacking like no one else on tour—and Roddick always plays best when he is on the offensive. He will likely have to face Marcos Baghdatis in the fourth round and any of 2001 US Open champ Lleyton Hewitt, No. 3 Ivan Ljubicic or up-and-comer Nick Djokavic or Richard Gasquet in the quarters. Even so, I have a feeling Roddick will get through to the finals, defeating Nadal in what should be a great semifinal. Nadal has not looked good on hard courts this summer, but his draw is fairly open and his heavy groundstrokes should prove too much. If you’re looking for a sleeper in that section, try Gael Monfils, whose game is well-suited to the Open hardcourts.

Federer vs. Roddick will draw huge ratings and a raucous crowd. Fans and his big serve aside, Roddick’s game has never really stung Federer in the past and it’s hard to see it happening this year. Call it Federer in four sets, with the first two very competitive before Federer pulls away.